Thursday, March 20, 2008
Friday, February 8, 2008
Freedom, My Immense Song -- Ainadamar
my wife, mrs bored, and i attended the chicago symphony orchestra's performance of ainadamar: fountain of tears, and all i can say is, wow. a big wow.
first of all, let me say that i was disappointed when my wife said it was an opera. and i was wrong. i must have an inclination towards the cso's modern offerings, because those have been the most memorable for me. but i am also a huge fan of al di meola, so i was familiar with the rhythms and syncopations used in ainadamar. plus, any time the symphony plays with two guitarists, i'd want to see it.
you should want to see it, as well! this is a totally impressive, very memorable performance which will leave you humming the themes throughout the rest of the night. it's no surprise that the opera was recorded, nor that it won two grammy awards: best opera recording of 2006, and best classical contemporary composition.
ainadamar was written by osvaldo golijov, the cso's mead composer-in-residence, who has been called "today’s hottest composer – young, innovative, creatively versatile, and rooted in different cultures and styles."
first of all, let me say that i was disappointed when my wife said it was an opera. and i was wrong. i must have an inclination towards the cso's modern offerings, because those have been the most memorable for me. but i am also a huge fan of al di meola, so i was familiar with the rhythms and syncopations used in ainadamar. plus, any time the symphony plays with two guitarists, i'd want to see it.
you should want to see it, as well! this is a totally impressive, very memorable performance which will leave you humming the themes throughout the rest of the night. it's no surprise that the opera was recorded, nor that it won two grammy awards: best opera recording of 2006, and best classical contemporary composition.
ainadamar was written by osvaldo golijov, the cso's mead composer-in-residence, who has been called "today’s hottest composer – young, innovative, creatively versatile, and rooted in different cultures and styles."
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Madigan's Troops Carry Riley to Victory
the race in this area has been near the center of the fault line. the speaker of the house, michael madigan, and the governor of illinois, rod blagojevich, seem pitted in a titanic battle to decide power and influence in the state. unfortunately, we -- the residents of illinois -- are the losers in this battle.
that battle became local as rich township supervisor, al riley, was appointed to the unfilled term of state representative robin kelly (who took the job of chief of staff for state treasurer alexi giannoulias). some thought, apparently including the governor's office, that this made riley the most vulnerable of state reps in 2008. it wasn't that close.
in flossmoor, the presence of madigan workers has been apparent in the last couple of weekends. they've been out knocking on doors, putting up yard signs, and asking voters to commit to voting for riley. that work paid off, as david orr's office shows riley winning by a substantial margin:
we've gotten at least eight mailers from riley, while i don't recall seeing a single one from ashmore. toni campaigned at the flossmoor metra station, and you could find her literature at local churches, but nothing that was widespread...
that battle became local as rich township supervisor, al riley, was appointed to the unfilled term of state representative robin kelly (who took the job of chief of staff for state treasurer alexi giannoulias). some thought, apparently including the governor's office, that this made riley the most vulnerable of state reps in 2008. it wasn't that close.
in flossmoor, the presence of madigan workers has been apparent in the last couple of weekends. they've been out knocking on doors, putting up yard signs, and asking voters to commit to voting for riley. that work paid off, as david orr's office shows riley winning by a substantial margin:
Al Riley 17,037 63.85%
Toni T. Ashmore 9,646 36.15%
we've gotten at least eight mailers from riley, while i don't recall seeing a single one from ashmore. toni campaigned at the flossmoor metra station, and you could find her literature at local churches, but nothing that was widespread...
Monday, January 21, 2008
In Honor of Martin Luther King
there's a picture of me and jesse jackson jr hanging in the halls of bethune cookman college in daytona beach, florida. we were playing in our swimming pool, and my parents didn't even know the picture existed until the college was looking for the names of the people in the picture.
i don't remember it. i can't say that i remember anything about that day, when john lewis, andrew young and jackson, sr (among others) came to our house to relax and strategize. i was just a kid. and, to be honest, lots of african americans came to our house in the late 60s and early 70s. if my parents had not mentioned it, i would never know.
what i do know is that the civil rights movement is in my dna. my parents were leaders in the cross-cultural, cross-denomination effort called bridge builders. today, we celebrate the efforts of martin luther king, jr, and those who have followed him, to bring equality into our society, economy and political system. it is good for us to remember. it is important to realize that the battle has yet to be won. we have come a long way, but that doesn't mean there aren't miles left to go. equality may be more than a dream today, but it is less than a reality for many. lest we forget...
i don't remember it. i can't say that i remember anything about that day, when john lewis, andrew young and jackson, sr (among others) came to our house to relax and strategize. i was just a kid. and, to be honest, lots of african americans came to our house in the late 60s and early 70s. if my parents had not mentioned it, i would never know.
what i do know is that the civil rights movement is in my dna. my parents were leaders in the cross-cultural, cross-denomination effort called bridge builders. today, we celebrate the efforts of martin luther king, jr, and those who have followed him, to bring equality into our society, economy and political system. it is good for us to remember. it is important to realize that the battle has yet to be won. we have come a long way, but that doesn't mean there aren't miles left to go. equality may be more than a dream today, but it is less than a reality for many. lest we forget...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
What Happened to the Madigan Boys?
i walked into elga jefferies office yesterday. instead of bustling activity conjuring a competitive campaign, i found a relaxed atmosphere with no sense of the looming deadline and more of a fixation with thursday's special session.
but the first thing that occurred to me was, what happened to the "madigan boys?"
this question is not an outgrowth of my conversation with jefferies' campaign manager, someone sent in by the speaker of the house and head of the illinois democratic party. that was merely the latest datapoint for the question. on saturday and sunday, i ran into other madigan workers, and they didn't leave me particularly impressed.
one reason why i am disappointed with the madigan workers i'm finding out in the streets and in campaign offices is because they have an image of being the smartest, brightest political operatives in the state. to wit, the campaign of brendan reilly was probably the smartest, best campaign in 2007 -- and it was stacked with "madigan boys." madigan's speaker's office staff remains top choice.
but it's been madigan's ability to control the streets, especially in chicago and cook county, that has kept him as top dog in the illinois democratic kennel. it's starting to look like that time has passed.
after talking to several of the people michael madigan has assigned to various campaigns in the chicagoland area, i have to wonder. many of the recent advances in voter contact don't appear to have been incorporated into the madigan system. despite assurances from a madigan boy this summer that they are making things like voter history (or pattern) available to their canvassers, i found no evidence of that this weekend. the voter contact sheets from madigan didn't look any different than they had in the past. one canvasser i talked to on sunday actually complained because he had spent the last hour or so knocking on republican's doors. nothing demoralizes volunteers like wasting their time.
more to the point, the system touted by the madigan boys over at the capitol fax blog in 2005 -- knock on ~90 doors an hour, distribute ~16 signs and find ~1 volunteer (i don't recall precisely, but i found them to be outrageous numbers when i heard them; i could not find a copy of the original capitol fax post that included this comment) -- wasn't in evidence. canvassers i observed had normal walk patterns, seemed a little confused by the terrain (they were from the city, it seemed, and this was the south suburbs) and had to walk a distance between doors. rather, they fit into the metrics from get out the vote. and at least one of the campaign signs for the madigan-supported candidate seemed to be placed there without the home owner's permission (well, maybe; it's always possible the upset home owner hadn't discussed this with her spouse).
these observations come from seeing madigan workers helping the campaigns of al riley, jefferies as well as others, from all over the chicagoland region. clearly, this is not all they bring. madigan has promised his challenged house members that he would double up the number of mailings that they did. so far, in the 38th house district, we've received two mailings from citizens for al riley (the education and the health care piece) while we got one mailing from friends of michael madigan (the predator piece). one campaign i've talked to only plans on sending out one piece on their own, to be doubled up by a madigan piece. that doesn't seem like a winning strategy.
in the past, madigan has also dumped money into state house races. at this point, i haven't seen evidence of that. but it does seem like the battle between the speaker and the governor has worn on madigan as well as blagojevich. in the 38th, while al riley is being supported by the speaker, his opponent, toni ashmore, is being supported by the governor. i wonder how many voters here, if they understood this, would have mixed feelings, as my family does. a pox on both your houses, as it were...
but the first thing that occurred to me was, what happened to the "madigan boys?"
this question is not an outgrowth of my conversation with jefferies' campaign manager, someone sent in by the speaker of the house and head of the illinois democratic party. that was merely the latest datapoint for the question. on saturday and sunday, i ran into other madigan workers, and they didn't leave me particularly impressed.
one reason why i am disappointed with the madigan workers i'm finding out in the streets and in campaign offices is because they have an image of being the smartest, brightest political operatives in the state. to wit, the campaign of brendan reilly was probably the smartest, best campaign in 2007 -- and it was stacked with "madigan boys." madigan's speaker's office staff remains top choice.
but it's been madigan's ability to control the streets, especially in chicago and cook county, that has kept him as top dog in the illinois democratic kennel. it's starting to look like that time has passed.
after talking to several of the people michael madigan has assigned to various campaigns in the chicagoland area, i have to wonder. many of the recent advances in voter contact don't appear to have been incorporated into the madigan system. despite assurances from a madigan boy this summer that they are making things like voter history (or pattern) available to their canvassers, i found no evidence of that this weekend. the voter contact sheets from madigan didn't look any different than they had in the past. one canvasser i talked to on sunday actually complained because he had spent the last hour or so knocking on republican's doors. nothing demoralizes volunteers like wasting their time.
more to the point, the system touted by the madigan boys over at the capitol fax blog in 2005 -- knock on ~90 doors an hour, distribute ~16 signs and find ~1 volunteer (i don't recall precisely, but i found them to be outrageous numbers when i heard them; i could not find a copy of the original capitol fax post that included this comment) -- wasn't in evidence. canvassers i observed had normal walk patterns, seemed a little confused by the terrain (they were from the city, it seemed, and this was the south suburbs) and had to walk a distance between doors. rather, they fit into the metrics from get out the vote. and at least one of the campaign signs for the madigan-supported candidate seemed to be placed there without the home owner's permission (well, maybe; it's always possible the upset home owner hadn't discussed this with her spouse).
these observations come from seeing madigan workers helping the campaigns of al riley, jefferies as well as others, from all over the chicagoland region. clearly, this is not all they bring. madigan has promised his challenged house members that he would double up the number of mailings that they did. so far, in the 38th house district, we've received two mailings from citizens for al riley (the education and the health care piece) while we got one mailing from friends of michael madigan (the predator piece). one campaign i've talked to only plans on sending out one piece on their own, to be doubled up by a madigan piece. that doesn't seem like a winning strategy.
in the past, madigan has also dumped money into state house races. at this point, i haven't seen evidence of that. but it does seem like the battle between the speaker and the governor has worn on madigan as well as blagojevich. in the 38th, while al riley is being supported by the speaker, his opponent, toni ashmore, is being supported by the governor. i wonder how many voters here, if they understood this, would have mixed feelings, as my family does. a pox on both your houses, as it were...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Grace Period Registration and Early Voting
early voting for the february 5 primaries begin on monday, january 14. suburban cook county voters will be able to vote at any one of 44 sites around the suburbs.
south suburban locations include:
Alsip Village Hall 4500 W. 123rd St.
Blue Island Village Hall 2434 Vernom St.
Burnham Village Hall 14450 Manistee Ave.
Chicago Heights City Hall 1601 Chicago Rd.
City of Harvey 15320 Broadway Ave.
Matteson Village Hall 4900 Village Cmn.
Park Forest Village Hall 350 Victory Blvd.
South Holland Village Hall 16226 Wausau
Markham Courthouse 16501 S. Kedzie Ave. – Rm. 238
CLERK’S MAIN OFFICE 69 W. Washington St. – CL 25
early voting runs from january 14 through january 31. but to vote early, voters must bring a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver’s license, state ID or passport.
early voting is "no excuse," meaning that no excuse is required to vote early.
south suburban locations include:
Alsip Village Hall 4500 W. 123rd St.
Blue Island Village Hall 2434 Vernom St.
Burnham Village Hall 14450 Manistee Ave.
Chicago Heights City Hall 1601 Chicago Rd.
City of Harvey 15320 Broadway Ave.
Matteson Village Hall 4900 Village Cmn.
Park Forest Village Hall 350 Victory Blvd.
South Holland Village Hall 16226 Wausau
Markham Courthouse 16501 S. Kedzie Ave. – Rm. 238
CLERK’S MAIN OFFICE 69 W. Washington St. – CL 25
early voting runs from january 14 through january 31. but to vote early, voters must bring a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver’s license, state ID or passport.
early voting is "no excuse," meaning that no excuse is required to vote early.
Campaigns Break Out in South Suburbs
while i was out this weekend, i saw dozens of campaign signs and a few canvassers out, as well. i talked with one canvasser, who was out knocking on doors for al riley. al riley is the newly appointed state representative where i live (38th district). he's running for election against toni ashmore. you may have seen toni out at the metra train stops in the area, passing out her own literature.
anyway, the canvasser i talked to said that he was canvassing for riley as a friend of the madigans. he apparently lives outside the area, but said he "grew up" with lisa madigan and has known the madigans for 30 years. the significant thing is that the speaker is actively supporting al riley and has brought in his troops to help him get elected. the "walk piece" that the canvasser was distributing is below:
by way of coincidence, toni ashmore has been canvassing in our neighborhood as well. her walk piece is below.
signs for riley, tj somer and thomas mahoney have also popped up:
only one month before everything has to come down!
anyway, the canvasser i talked to said that he was canvassing for riley as a friend of the madigans. he apparently lives outside the area, but said he "grew up" with lisa madigan and has known the madigans for 30 years. the significant thing is that the speaker is actively supporting al riley and has brought in his troops to help him get elected. the "walk piece" that the canvasser was distributing is below:
by way of coincidence, toni ashmore has been canvassing in our neighborhood as well. her walk piece is below.
signs for riley, tj somer and thomas mahoney have also popped up:
only one month before everything has to come down!
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
IL-03 Roundup #2
there's been a slew of news in this race, for everybody running. rep. lipinski got the afl-cio endorsement [PDF] and the afscme endorsement. this isn't a surprise given the association of speaker madigan with lipinski, and madigan's closeness with the unions. lipinski also got the endorsement of pipefitters local 597.
mark pera got the endorsement of NARAL/Pro-Choice America as well as the endorsement of forrest claypool, who won almost 70 percent of the vote in four il-03 townships during the 2006 primary. pera was also endorsed by reformers ald. manny flores, ald. brendan reilly, ald. scott waguespack, st. sen. dan kotowski, st. rep. john fritchey, and mwrd commissioner debra shore.
jerry bennett has announced the endorsements of 66 local mayors; the southwest sider blogger lists them all. the one that is missing is the one undoubtedly supporting lipinski.
jim capparelli has no new endorsements since the last post. capparelli's website has an audio component to it's front page, which may have been there before (i often mute sound on my computer).
the politico called lipinski one of the five most vulnerable in 2008 primary challenges:
meanwhile, the national journal has taken notice of kos' efforts to lick lil lip.
the local newspapers are giving the race attention. clout street, the chicago tribune blog covered the endorsements that pera and bennett picked up. archpundit also covered pera's endorsement by local reformers. ray hanania, of the southwest news-herald wrote this column on the race:
read the whole thing, which reflects the current conventional wisdom about the race.
jerry bennett has been getting increasing coverage. the daily southtown covered bennett's presentation before a gage park high school class:
ray hanania (as well as archpundit) covered bennett's s-chip announcement. the reporter online covered a rally, where bennett says lipinski “has not done the job” and is a “Republican in Democratic cloth.” a radio interview with bennett can he heard here.
mark pera probably scores the best in the last couple of weeks, since his netroots following has been active in keeping his story alive. one of them posted this story from chicago's fox news on youtube. local tribune papers covered pera's endorsements by citizen action/illinois, claypool and naral. the blogosphere has been on fire for pera this month, starting with an in these times article, to archpundit's coverage of pera youtube offerings, openleft's coverage of candidate statements to dailykos writeups here and here. pera is also getting coverage in the capitol hill outlets, the hill and roll call. it's no surprise, then, that aaron krager argues that pera is winning the media war.
the capitol fax blog had a lively discussion about the turmoil of the lipinski campaign, with rich miller, as usual, providing some common sense.
not so new, but at least new to his website, dan lipinski offers up an old brochure [PDF]. interestingly, i think lipinski's new slogan ("representation you have come to expect!") is probably more accurate than his old one ("leadership. commitment. experience.").
capparelli has a new, printable issues page. he has a welcome video up, as well.
the bennett campaign got back to me shortly after posting the first post, and i gave them the opportunity to answer those questions. their campaign headquarters is located at 7229 W. 103rd St, Palos Hills, IL, 60465. (Phone: 708-907-5063), which is open everyday. they feel like their grassroots support is strong:
they report they have "lots of "at home" projects - calling, netroots networking, etc - for at web-savvy folks!" email alex [alex@jerrybennettforcongress.com] or call 708-907-5063, if you are interested.
pera put up a new cable ad, the youtube version is here. the campaign also sent out two direct mail pieces, available on the website. the "end this war" mailer is justified by a "fact sheet for this mailing." [PDF]. the campaign also released a third video message from the campaign to voters. that's using your web.
since the last post, the pera campaign has been joined by two new employees, deputy fund-raiser trevor montgomery, who is an iraq war veteran, and community outreach and field organizer, maura kelly. a video of montgomery is up on youtube here.
if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race. like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections. there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:
1. the candidates
2. money
3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can't change)
4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)
5. their organizations
probably the biggest deciding factor *right now* in this race is the political environment. while the incumbent has about a third of those polled who support his re-election, this is still a machine district. and it's not just any machine district, but the core of the chicago political machine. it will take more than half a million dollars to be competitive with the machine candidate in this district. there is such a strong undercurrent in the last two weeks that any campaign that hopes to be competitive will need to buttress itself and its voter base from the effect.
add to this the fact that the primary is february 5th. the machine is hoping that the weather is nasty -- typically, this is called precinct captain's weather, because some believe that only those who benefit directly from the chicago system will come out in such weather.
the bennett campaign seems to expect to import some of their own lil machines into the district for his benefit. many of the towns and villages who's mayors have endorsed bennett have non-partisan elections. that doesn't mean they don't have parties -- or machines -- just that they are not known by the democratic or republican label. we cannot know how committed these mayors are to bennett's election, but if they are, then machine or precinct captain's weather may not tilt the campaign one particular way. however, bennett can only benefit from importing lil machines if he's got his support id'ed by the time they come in (for the most part).
the final environmental factor that will strongly influence this race is the obama effect. barack obama drives turnout in illinois. his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2008 will have the same effect as his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2004 -- it will boost turnout significantly. and it will boost turnout beyond the normal surge turnout expected in a presidential year. turnout will be super-surged, and all those extra voters are not likely to go to the machine. of course, the good precinct captains know this, and they may have a plan to respond.
in many ways, as candidates the jury is still out for the non-incumbents. lipinski is, at best, a D candidate. that's a D for below average, not democrat. mark pera has shown promise, but i don't think he's shined (yet) like dan kotowski or deb shore did in 2006. his campaign says:
jerry bennett is still too new to the race. he's played an insider's game, to the extent he can, and hasn't really had the level of public appearances one expects from an a-level candidate. the bennett campaign tells us that the local mayoral network is significant in the southside and southwest side. they will leverage that as much as they can. bennett has been, by all accounts, an effective mayor who has organized his fellow mayors to gain influence in the state. but bennett's late entry is problematic. bennett's name recognition outside his town is limited. in pera's poll, capparelli had better name recognition than bennett. pera's name recognition was higher than either of them -- due to his earlier start.
jim capparelli has been almost invisible outside his base. so who knows?
the political climate favors the reformers. that's why there's so many looking to claim that label in the race. lil lip is vulnerable, and pera's campaign has specifically been designed to take advantage of that:
the campaign that can seize the reformer label in this race seizes the advantage. that's why the pera campaign (and its allies) have worked so hard to grab the reformer label and present this race as one between pera and lipinski. this rankles the campaigns of the other two candidates, each of which brings their own advantages to the race.
actblue offers one way to tract money. at this date, actblue shows:
Jerry Bennett
Contributors: 22
Amount: $8,140
Jim Capparelli
Contributors: 5
Amount: $300
Daniel Lipinski
Mark Pera
Contributors: 1,859
Amount: $118,066
the bennett campaign tells me that they have raised $100,000 in the first 30 days of his campaign. yet even if they continue this pace, they still don't get to $500,000 (which rich miller reminds us is the "price" of competitive *state* legislator races in illinois -- there are three state senate districts in il-03). there's a reason why we advise campaigns to start early. pera may have outraised lipinski in the last quarter, but lipinski ended it with more cash on hand. i'd call that a tie.
it's a little harder to compare organizations. the word seems to be that lipinski's organization is crumbling. demoralized, even. there are rumblings that lipinski senior has seized control of his son's "organization" in order to right the ship. i wonder if it matters. the lipinski name isn't what it used to be. madigan will be the machinehead who decides where the resources go. if the speaker wants to keep this seat, and he's willing to sacrifice some other races he's interested in, he will. but we won't know until the last two weeks. the afl-cio and afscme endorsements could be vital to mobilizing behind lipinski -- if they get into the middle of it.
there's very little question that the pera campaign has the best organization at this moment. they've been aggressive about raising money, and this has allowed them to go on the air and in the mail. they've been outrageously successful at gaining earned media. they have opened a second field office, and plan "an amazing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy and we're fortunate to have the support of the volunteers and constituent groups we need to move from planning to action in the upcoming weeks."
i wouldn't underestimate the bennett organization. they have put together a "kick-ass chicago team to run bennett's campaign." he needs it. palos hills is a small town in the district, and the 3,000 votes he's gotten there in the past isn't close to what is needed to be competitive. in 2006, there were more than 81,000 votes cast in this primary. no one would be surprised if it went over a hundred thousand in february. the real question is, where will the extra votes come from? if they come out of the city, and the 19th ward holds its voters for lipinski, the incumbent wins.
numerous calls and emails to the capparelli campaign were not returned for this report...
mark pera got the endorsement of NARAL/Pro-Choice America as well as the endorsement of forrest claypool, who won almost 70 percent of the vote in four il-03 townships during the 2006 primary. pera was also endorsed by reformers ald. manny flores, ald. brendan reilly, ald. scott waguespack, st. sen. dan kotowski, st. rep. john fritchey, and mwrd commissioner debra shore.
jerry bennett has announced the endorsements of 66 local mayors; the southwest sider blogger lists them all. the one that is missing is the one undoubtedly supporting lipinski.
jim capparelli has no new endorsements since the last post. capparelli's website has an audio component to it's front page, which may have been there before (i often mute sound on my computer).
the politico called lipinski one of the five most vulnerable in 2008 primary challenges:
Lipinski has never been able to win over a large majority of Democrats in his Chicago-based district since he was appointed as the nominee after his father’s abrupt resignation in 2004. His relatively conservative voting record within the Democratic caucus has prompted attorney Mark Pera to mount a well-funded and well-organized challenge.
meanwhile, the national journal has taken notice of kos' efforts to lick lil lip.
the local newspapers are giving the race attention. clout street, the chicago tribune blog covered the endorsements that pera and bennett picked up. archpundit also covered pera's endorsement by local reformers. ray hanania, of the southwest news-herald wrote this column on the race:
In the end, the Democratic Primary election comes down to an organization effort. And there, Lipinski has the edge.
In the primary battle two years ago against John Kelly and John Sullivan, Lipinski won by a landslide, with 56 percent of the city’s 46,000 votes and 53 percent of the suburb’s 36,000 votes.
Work the numbers. Lipinski was solid in several heavy voting wards in Chicago, trailing Kelly by 400 votes in the 19th Ward, where Irish voters vote for the Irish above all else.
Lipinski’s vote margin in the suburbs were strong across the suburban areas of the district. He did better, though, in the city, mainly because he won huge voter support in the district’s other key wards, the 23rd, 13th and 11th.
Can Lipinski lose? Maybe, if the powers that be who represent voters in the 3rd District turn their backs on him and on his father, who spent years helping all those communities and leaders.
read the whole thing, which reflects the current conventional wisdom about the race.
jerry bennett has been getting increasing coverage. the daily southtown covered bennett's presentation before a gage park high school class:
While not a household name, Bennett is the best-known of Lipinski's opponents. More than 20 area mayors recently endorsed his candidacy. As Palos Hills' part-time, $28,000-a-year mayor - a post he has held for 27 years - and as a regional leader on several planning boards, Bennett touts his governmental experience as the characteristic that sets him apart from his opponents.
ray hanania (as well as archpundit) covered bennett's s-chip announcement. the reporter online covered a rally, where bennett says lipinski “has not done the job” and is a “Republican in Democratic cloth.” a radio interview with bennett can he heard here.
mark pera probably scores the best in the last couple of weeks, since his netroots following has been active in keeping his story alive. one of them posted this story from chicago's fox news on youtube. local tribune papers covered pera's endorsements by citizen action/illinois, claypool and naral. the blogosphere has been on fire for pera this month, starting with an in these times article, to archpundit's coverage of pera youtube offerings, openleft's coverage of candidate statements to dailykos writeups here and here. pera is also getting coverage in the capitol hill outlets, the hill and roll call. it's no surprise, then, that aaron krager argues that pera is winning the media war.
the capitol fax blog had a lively discussion about the turmoil of the lipinski campaign, with rich miller, as usual, providing some common sense.
not so new, but at least new to his website, dan lipinski offers up an old brochure [PDF]. interestingly, i think lipinski's new slogan ("representation you have come to expect!") is probably more accurate than his old one ("leadership. commitment. experience.").
capparelli has a new, printable issues page. he has a welcome video up, as well.
the bennett campaign got back to me shortly after posting the first post, and i gave them the opportunity to answer those questions. their campaign headquarters is located at 7229 W. 103rd St, Palos Hills, IL, 60465. (Phone: 708-907-5063), which is open everyday. they feel like their grassroots support is strong:
we have more than 70 Mayors from all over the region backing Jerry's campaign. Mayors are at the absolute grassroots level, ensuring the quality of life in their towns and communities is addressed and providing those essential services from water to libraries to parks and rec. Mayor Bennett is also a life-long South Sider and his extensive network of family (he's one of 13 brothers and sisters), relatives, friends, colleagues and civic contacts are doing everything from making phone calls to hosting coffees to telling their own friends and neighbors to collecting small-dollar donations for the campaign. Our Southside Swarm is also gearing up for a strong field effort in these weeks leading up to the Feb 5th Election Day.
they report they have "lots of "at home" projects - calling, netroots networking, etc - for at web-savvy folks!" email alex [alex@jerrybennettforcongress.com] or call 708-907-5063, if you are interested.
pera put up a new cable ad, the youtube version is here. the campaign also sent out two direct mail pieces, available on the website. the "end this war" mailer is justified by a "fact sheet for this mailing." [PDF]. the campaign also released a third video message from the campaign to voters. that's using your web.
since the last post, the pera campaign has been joined by two new employees, deputy fund-raiser trevor montgomery, who is an iraq war veteran, and community outreach and field organizer, maura kelly. a video of montgomery is up on youtube here.
if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race. like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections. there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:
1. the candidates
2. money
3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can't change)
4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)
5. their organizations
probably the biggest deciding factor *right now* in this race is the political environment. while the incumbent has about a third of those polled who support his re-election, this is still a machine district. and it's not just any machine district, but the core of the chicago political machine. it will take more than half a million dollars to be competitive with the machine candidate in this district. there is such a strong undercurrent in the last two weeks that any campaign that hopes to be competitive will need to buttress itself and its voter base from the effect.
add to this the fact that the primary is february 5th. the machine is hoping that the weather is nasty -- typically, this is called precinct captain's weather, because some believe that only those who benefit directly from the chicago system will come out in such weather.
the bennett campaign seems to expect to import some of their own lil machines into the district for his benefit. many of the towns and villages who's mayors have endorsed bennett have non-partisan elections. that doesn't mean they don't have parties -- or machines -- just that they are not known by the democratic or republican label. we cannot know how committed these mayors are to bennett's election, but if they are, then machine or precinct captain's weather may not tilt the campaign one particular way. however, bennett can only benefit from importing lil machines if he's got his support id'ed by the time they come in (for the most part).
the final environmental factor that will strongly influence this race is the obama effect. barack obama drives turnout in illinois. his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2008 will have the same effect as his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2004 -- it will boost turnout significantly. and it will boost turnout beyond the normal surge turnout expected in a presidential year. turnout will be super-surged, and all those extra voters are not likely to go to the machine. of course, the good precinct captains know this, and they may have a plan to respond.
in many ways, as candidates the jury is still out for the non-incumbents. lipinski is, at best, a D candidate. that's a D for below average, not democrat. mark pera has shown promise, but i don't think he's shined (yet) like dan kotowski or deb shore did in 2006. his campaign says:
By any objective measure, Mark Pera is the viable challenger to Congressman Dan Lipinski. With less than 50 days to the election, Mark, myself and our campaign staff have been up and running full-time and over-time for nearly five months out of our offices here in Countryside. We have been up on cable TV since the end of October with two TV ads ("It's Time" and "Pain at the Pump"). We have four top-notch direct mail pieces out the door and in the hands of Democratic voters. The video messages that we have posted online at our Web site and on YouTube are watched by thousands of viewers. We've set the framework for this campaign and, perhaps most importantly, we are directing the new people and resources that have joined us to increase the pace of the campaign. For example, we recently opened a second field office in the city.
Mark has the talent and vision to provide real leadership for residents of the 3rd district. Since 2001, he has served as President of the Lyons Township High School Board of Education, which has an attendance area of 80,000 residents. The district is one of the top school districts in the state. As director of the Cook County State's Attorney's Office's Environment and Energy Division, he and his team was responsible for prosecuting major industrial polluters and well-known utility companies that were working against the public interest. It's these civic and law and order credentials that have helped him earn the trust and support of some of the leading reformers in Cook County and the state.
jerry bennett is still too new to the race. he's played an insider's game, to the extent he can, and hasn't really had the level of public appearances one expects from an a-level candidate. the bennett campaign tells us that the local mayoral network is significant in the southside and southwest side. they will leverage that as much as they can. bennett has been, by all accounts, an effective mayor who has organized his fellow mayors to gain influence in the state. but bennett's late entry is problematic. bennett's name recognition outside his town is limited. in pera's poll, capparelli had better name recognition than bennett. pera's name recognition was higher than either of them -- due to his earlier start.
jim capparelli has been almost invisible outside his base. so who knows?
the political climate favors the reformers. that's why there's so many looking to claim that label in the race. lil lip is vulnerable, and pera's campaign has specifically been designed to take advantage of that:
We're hearing from voters that they have decided to vote for Mark Pera on Feb. 5. The reason they most often cite is that our campaign is on the right side of the issues that the voters care about deeply, whether it's the Iraq war, energy and the environment, choice, personal privacy, stem cell research or health care. They think our current Congressman's leadership on these issues is inadequate, the don't like how Lipinski was put in office and voters want change. They know Mark can bring about that change.
the campaign that can seize the reformer label in this race seizes the advantage. that's why the pera campaign (and its allies) have worked so hard to grab the reformer label and present this race as one between pera and lipinski. this rankles the campaigns of the other two candidates, each of which brings their own advantages to the race.
actblue offers one way to tract money. at this date, actblue shows:
Jerry Bennett
Contributors: 22
Amount: $8,140
Jim Capparelli
Contributors: 5
Amount: $300
Daniel Lipinski
Mark Pera
Contributors: 1,859
Amount: $118,066
the bennett campaign tells me that they have raised $100,000 in the first 30 days of his campaign. yet even if they continue this pace, they still don't get to $500,000 (which rich miller reminds us is the "price" of competitive *state* legislator races in illinois -- there are three state senate districts in il-03). there's a reason why we advise campaigns to start early. pera may have outraised lipinski in the last quarter, but lipinski ended it with more cash on hand. i'd call that a tie.
it's a little harder to compare organizations. the word seems to be that lipinski's organization is crumbling. demoralized, even. there are rumblings that lipinski senior has seized control of his son's "organization" in order to right the ship. i wonder if it matters. the lipinski name isn't what it used to be. madigan will be the machinehead who decides where the resources go. if the speaker wants to keep this seat, and he's willing to sacrifice some other races he's interested in, he will. but we won't know until the last two weeks. the afl-cio and afscme endorsements could be vital to mobilizing behind lipinski -- if they get into the middle of it.
there's very little question that the pera campaign has the best organization at this moment. they've been aggressive about raising money, and this has allowed them to go on the air and in the mail. they've been outrageously successful at gaining earned media. they have opened a second field office, and plan "an amazing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy and we're fortunate to have the support of the volunteers and constituent groups we need to move from planning to action in the upcoming weeks."
i wouldn't underestimate the bennett organization. they have put together a "kick-ass chicago team to run bennett's campaign." he needs it. palos hills is a small town in the district, and the 3,000 votes he's gotten there in the past isn't close to what is needed to be competitive. in 2006, there were more than 81,000 votes cast in this primary. no one would be surprised if it went over a hundred thousand in february. the real question is, where will the extra votes come from? if they come out of the city, and the 19th ward holds its voters for lipinski, the incumbent wins.
numerous calls and emails to the capparelli campaign were not returned for this report...
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
It's a Snow Day...
it started snowing last night. what fascinates me the most about when it snows is just how quiet it gets. very few cars are out. kids stay in. there are no animals or insects making noise. the snow falls by itself. it doesn't seem like the city (or a suburb) at all.
that's not what i expect. but i like the quiet. seems almost like the country. or another country. with snow.
we had 3-4 inches outside our door, which seems like a lot for the south side...
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