there's a picture of me and jesse jackson jr hanging in the halls of bethune cookman college in daytona beach, florida. we were playing in our swimming pool, and my parents didn't even know the picture existed until the college was looking for the names of the people in the picture.
i don't remember it. i can't say that i remember anything about that day, when john lewis, andrew young and jackson, sr (among others) came to our house to relax and strategize. i was just a kid. and, to be honest, lots of african americans came to our house in the late 60s and early 70s. if my parents had not mentioned it, i would never know.
what i do know is that the civil rights movement is in my dna. my parents were leaders in the cross-cultural, cross-denomination effort called bridge builders. today, we celebrate the efforts of martin luther king, jr, and those who have followed him, to bring equality into our society, economy and political system. it is good for us to remember. it is important to realize that the battle has yet to be won. we have come a long way, but that doesn't mean there aren't miles left to go. equality may be more than a dream today, but it is less than a reality for many. lest we forget...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
What Happened to the Madigan Boys?
i walked into elga jefferies office yesterday. instead of bustling activity conjuring a competitive campaign, i found a relaxed atmosphere with no sense of the looming deadline and more of a fixation with thursday's special session.
but the first thing that occurred to me was, what happened to the "madigan boys?"
this question is not an outgrowth of my conversation with jefferies' campaign manager, someone sent in by the speaker of the house and head of the illinois democratic party. that was merely the latest datapoint for the question. on saturday and sunday, i ran into other madigan workers, and they didn't leave me particularly impressed.
one reason why i am disappointed with the madigan workers i'm finding out in the streets and in campaign offices is because they have an image of being the smartest, brightest political operatives in the state. to wit, the campaign of brendan reilly was probably the smartest, best campaign in 2007 -- and it was stacked with "madigan boys." madigan's speaker's office staff remains top choice.
but it's been madigan's ability to control the streets, especially in chicago and cook county, that has kept him as top dog in the illinois democratic kennel. it's starting to look like that time has passed.
after talking to several of the people michael madigan has assigned to various campaigns in the chicagoland area, i have to wonder. many of the recent advances in voter contact don't appear to have been incorporated into the madigan system. despite assurances from a madigan boy this summer that they are making things like voter history (or pattern) available to their canvassers, i found no evidence of that this weekend. the voter contact sheets from madigan didn't look any different than they had in the past. one canvasser i talked to on sunday actually complained because he had spent the last hour or so knocking on republican's doors. nothing demoralizes volunteers like wasting their time.
more to the point, the system touted by the madigan boys over at the capitol fax blog in 2005 -- knock on ~90 doors an hour, distribute ~16 signs and find ~1 volunteer (i don't recall precisely, but i found them to be outrageous numbers when i heard them; i could not find a copy of the original capitol fax post that included this comment) -- wasn't in evidence. canvassers i observed had normal walk patterns, seemed a little confused by the terrain (they were from the city, it seemed, and this was the south suburbs) and had to walk a distance between doors. rather, they fit into the metrics from get out the vote. and at least one of the campaign signs for the madigan-supported candidate seemed to be placed there without the home owner's permission (well, maybe; it's always possible the upset home owner hadn't discussed this with her spouse).
these observations come from seeing madigan workers helping the campaigns of al riley, jefferies as well as others, from all over the chicagoland region. clearly, this is not all they bring. madigan has promised his challenged house members that he would double up the number of mailings that they did. so far, in the 38th house district, we've received two mailings from citizens for al riley (the education and the health care piece) while we got one mailing from friends of michael madigan (the predator piece). one campaign i've talked to only plans on sending out one piece on their own, to be doubled up by a madigan piece. that doesn't seem like a winning strategy.
in the past, madigan has also dumped money into state house races. at this point, i haven't seen evidence of that. but it does seem like the battle between the speaker and the governor has worn on madigan as well as blagojevich. in the 38th, while al riley is being supported by the speaker, his opponent, toni ashmore, is being supported by the governor. i wonder how many voters here, if they understood this, would have mixed feelings, as my family does. a pox on both your houses, as it were...
but the first thing that occurred to me was, what happened to the "madigan boys?"
this question is not an outgrowth of my conversation with jefferies' campaign manager, someone sent in by the speaker of the house and head of the illinois democratic party. that was merely the latest datapoint for the question. on saturday and sunday, i ran into other madigan workers, and they didn't leave me particularly impressed.
one reason why i am disappointed with the madigan workers i'm finding out in the streets and in campaign offices is because they have an image of being the smartest, brightest political operatives in the state. to wit, the campaign of brendan reilly was probably the smartest, best campaign in 2007 -- and it was stacked with "madigan boys." madigan's speaker's office staff remains top choice.
but it's been madigan's ability to control the streets, especially in chicago and cook county, that has kept him as top dog in the illinois democratic kennel. it's starting to look like that time has passed.
after talking to several of the people michael madigan has assigned to various campaigns in the chicagoland area, i have to wonder. many of the recent advances in voter contact don't appear to have been incorporated into the madigan system. despite assurances from a madigan boy this summer that they are making things like voter history (or pattern) available to their canvassers, i found no evidence of that this weekend. the voter contact sheets from madigan didn't look any different than they had in the past. one canvasser i talked to on sunday actually complained because he had spent the last hour or so knocking on republican's doors. nothing demoralizes volunteers like wasting their time.
more to the point, the system touted by the madigan boys over at the capitol fax blog in 2005 -- knock on ~90 doors an hour, distribute ~16 signs and find ~1 volunteer (i don't recall precisely, but i found them to be outrageous numbers when i heard them; i could not find a copy of the original capitol fax post that included this comment) -- wasn't in evidence. canvassers i observed had normal walk patterns, seemed a little confused by the terrain (they were from the city, it seemed, and this was the south suburbs) and had to walk a distance between doors. rather, they fit into the metrics from get out the vote. and at least one of the campaign signs for the madigan-supported candidate seemed to be placed there without the home owner's permission (well, maybe; it's always possible the upset home owner hadn't discussed this with her spouse).
these observations come from seeing madigan workers helping the campaigns of al riley, jefferies as well as others, from all over the chicagoland region. clearly, this is not all they bring. madigan has promised his challenged house members that he would double up the number of mailings that they did. so far, in the 38th house district, we've received two mailings from citizens for al riley (the education and the health care piece) while we got one mailing from friends of michael madigan (the predator piece). one campaign i've talked to only plans on sending out one piece on their own, to be doubled up by a madigan piece. that doesn't seem like a winning strategy.
in the past, madigan has also dumped money into state house races. at this point, i haven't seen evidence of that. but it does seem like the battle between the speaker and the governor has worn on madigan as well as blagojevich. in the 38th, while al riley is being supported by the speaker, his opponent, toni ashmore, is being supported by the governor. i wonder how many voters here, if they understood this, would have mixed feelings, as my family does. a pox on both your houses, as it were...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Grace Period Registration and Early Voting
early voting for the february 5 primaries begin on monday, january 14. suburban cook county voters will be able to vote at any one of 44 sites around the suburbs.
south suburban locations include:
Alsip Village Hall 4500 W. 123rd St.
Blue Island Village Hall 2434 Vernom St.
Burnham Village Hall 14450 Manistee Ave.
Chicago Heights City Hall 1601 Chicago Rd.
City of Harvey 15320 Broadway Ave.
Matteson Village Hall 4900 Village Cmn.
Park Forest Village Hall 350 Victory Blvd.
South Holland Village Hall 16226 Wausau
Markham Courthouse 16501 S. Kedzie Ave. – Rm. 238
CLERK’S MAIN OFFICE 69 W. Washington St. – CL 25
early voting runs from january 14 through january 31. but to vote early, voters must bring a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver’s license, state ID or passport.
early voting is "no excuse," meaning that no excuse is required to vote early.
south suburban locations include:
Alsip Village Hall 4500 W. 123rd St.
Blue Island Village Hall 2434 Vernom St.
Burnham Village Hall 14450 Manistee Ave.
Chicago Heights City Hall 1601 Chicago Rd.
City of Harvey 15320 Broadway Ave.
Matteson Village Hall 4900 Village Cmn.
Park Forest Village Hall 350 Victory Blvd.
South Holland Village Hall 16226 Wausau
Markham Courthouse 16501 S. Kedzie Ave. – Rm. 238
CLERK’S MAIN OFFICE 69 W. Washington St. – CL 25
early voting runs from january 14 through january 31. but to vote early, voters must bring a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver’s license, state ID or passport.
early voting is "no excuse," meaning that no excuse is required to vote early.
Campaigns Break Out in South Suburbs
while i was out this weekend, i saw dozens of campaign signs and a few canvassers out, as well. i talked with one canvasser, who was out knocking on doors for al riley. al riley is the newly appointed state representative where i live (38th district). he's running for election against toni ashmore. you may have seen toni out at the metra train stops in the area, passing out her own literature.
anyway, the canvasser i talked to said that he was canvassing for riley as a friend of the madigans. he apparently lives outside the area, but said he "grew up" with lisa madigan and has known the madigans for 30 years. the significant thing is that the speaker is actively supporting al riley and has brought in his troops to help him get elected. the "walk piece" that the canvasser was distributing is below:
by way of coincidence, toni ashmore has been canvassing in our neighborhood as well. her walk piece is below.
signs for riley, tj somer and thomas mahoney have also popped up:
only one month before everything has to come down!
anyway, the canvasser i talked to said that he was canvassing for riley as a friend of the madigans. he apparently lives outside the area, but said he "grew up" with lisa madigan and has known the madigans for 30 years. the significant thing is that the speaker is actively supporting al riley and has brought in his troops to help him get elected. the "walk piece" that the canvasser was distributing is below:
by way of coincidence, toni ashmore has been canvassing in our neighborhood as well. her walk piece is below.
signs for riley, tj somer and thomas mahoney have also popped up:
only one month before everything has to come down!
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
IL-03 Roundup #2
there's been a slew of news in this race, for everybody running. rep. lipinski got the afl-cio endorsement [PDF] and the afscme endorsement. this isn't a surprise given the association of speaker madigan with lipinski, and madigan's closeness with the unions. lipinski also got the endorsement of pipefitters local 597.
mark pera got the endorsement of NARAL/Pro-Choice America as well as the endorsement of forrest claypool, who won almost 70 percent of the vote in four il-03 townships during the 2006 primary. pera was also endorsed by reformers ald. manny flores, ald. brendan reilly, ald. scott waguespack, st. sen. dan kotowski, st. rep. john fritchey, and mwrd commissioner debra shore.
jerry bennett has announced the endorsements of 66 local mayors; the southwest sider blogger lists them all. the one that is missing is the one undoubtedly supporting lipinski.
jim capparelli has no new endorsements since the last post. capparelli's website has an audio component to it's front page, which may have been there before (i often mute sound on my computer).
the politico called lipinski one of the five most vulnerable in 2008 primary challenges:
meanwhile, the national journal has taken notice of kos' efforts to lick lil lip.
the local newspapers are giving the race attention. clout street, the chicago tribune blog covered the endorsements that pera and bennett picked up. archpundit also covered pera's endorsement by local reformers. ray hanania, of the southwest news-herald wrote this column on the race:
read the whole thing, which reflects the current conventional wisdom about the race.
jerry bennett has been getting increasing coverage. the daily southtown covered bennett's presentation before a gage park high school class:
ray hanania (as well as archpundit) covered bennett's s-chip announcement. the reporter online covered a rally, where bennett says lipinski “has not done the job” and is a “Republican in Democratic cloth.” a radio interview with bennett can he heard here.
mark pera probably scores the best in the last couple of weeks, since his netroots following has been active in keeping his story alive. one of them posted this story from chicago's fox news on youtube. local tribune papers covered pera's endorsements by citizen action/illinois, claypool and naral. the blogosphere has been on fire for pera this month, starting with an in these times article, to archpundit's coverage of pera youtube offerings, openleft's coverage of candidate statements to dailykos writeups here and here. pera is also getting coverage in the capitol hill outlets, the hill and roll call. it's no surprise, then, that aaron krager argues that pera is winning the media war.
the capitol fax blog had a lively discussion about the turmoil of the lipinski campaign, with rich miller, as usual, providing some common sense.
not so new, but at least new to his website, dan lipinski offers up an old brochure [PDF]. interestingly, i think lipinski's new slogan ("representation you have come to expect!") is probably more accurate than his old one ("leadership. commitment. experience.").
capparelli has a new, printable issues page. he has a welcome video up, as well.
the bennett campaign got back to me shortly after posting the first post, and i gave them the opportunity to answer those questions. their campaign headquarters is located at 7229 W. 103rd St, Palos Hills, IL, 60465. (Phone: 708-907-5063), which is open everyday. they feel like their grassroots support is strong:
they report they have "lots of "at home" projects - calling, netroots networking, etc - for at web-savvy folks!" email alex [alex@jerrybennettforcongress.com] or call 708-907-5063, if you are interested.
pera put up a new cable ad, the youtube version is here. the campaign also sent out two direct mail pieces, available on the website. the "end this war" mailer is justified by a "fact sheet for this mailing." [PDF]. the campaign also released a third video message from the campaign to voters. that's using your web.
since the last post, the pera campaign has been joined by two new employees, deputy fund-raiser trevor montgomery, who is an iraq war veteran, and community outreach and field organizer, maura kelly. a video of montgomery is up on youtube here.
if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race. like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections. there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:
1. the candidates
2. money
3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can't change)
4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)
5. their organizations
probably the biggest deciding factor *right now* in this race is the political environment. while the incumbent has about a third of those polled who support his re-election, this is still a machine district. and it's not just any machine district, but the core of the chicago political machine. it will take more than half a million dollars to be competitive with the machine candidate in this district. there is such a strong undercurrent in the last two weeks that any campaign that hopes to be competitive will need to buttress itself and its voter base from the effect.
add to this the fact that the primary is february 5th. the machine is hoping that the weather is nasty -- typically, this is called precinct captain's weather, because some believe that only those who benefit directly from the chicago system will come out in such weather.
the bennett campaign seems to expect to import some of their own lil machines into the district for his benefit. many of the towns and villages who's mayors have endorsed bennett have non-partisan elections. that doesn't mean they don't have parties -- or machines -- just that they are not known by the democratic or republican label. we cannot know how committed these mayors are to bennett's election, but if they are, then machine or precinct captain's weather may not tilt the campaign one particular way. however, bennett can only benefit from importing lil machines if he's got his support id'ed by the time they come in (for the most part).
the final environmental factor that will strongly influence this race is the obama effect. barack obama drives turnout in illinois. his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2008 will have the same effect as his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2004 -- it will boost turnout significantly. and it will boost turnout beyond the normal surge turnout expected in a presidential year. turnout will be super-surged, and all those extra voters are not likely to go to the machine. of course, the good precinct captains know this, and they may have a plan to respond.
in many ways, as candidates the jury is still out for the non-incumbents. lipinski is, at best, a D candidate. that's a D for below average, not democrat. mark pera has shown promise, but i don't think he's shined (yet) like dan kotowski or deb shore did in 2006. his campaign says:
jerry bennett is still too new to the race. he's played an insider's game, to the extent he can, and hasn't really had the level of public appearances one expects from an a-level candidate. the bennett campaign tells us that the local mayoral network is significant in the southside and southwest side. they will leverage that as much as they can. bennett has been, by all accounts, an effective mayor who has organized his fellow mayors to gain influence in the state. but bennett's late entry is problematic. bennett's name recognition outside his town is limited. in pera's poll, capparelli had better name recognition than bennett. pera's name recognition was higher than either of them -- due to his earlier start.
jim capparelli has been almost invisible outside his base. so who knows?
the political climate favors the reformers. that's why there's so many looking to claim that label in the race. lil lip is vulnerable, and pera's campaign has specifically been designed to take advantage of that:
the campaign that can seize the reformer label in this race seizes the advantage. that's why the pera campaign (and its allies) have worked so hard to grab the reformer label and present this race as one between pera and lipinski. this rankles the campaigns of the other two candidates, each of which brings their own advantages to the race.
actblue offers one way to tract money. at this date, actblue shows:
Jerry Bennett
Contributors: 22
Amount: $8,140
Jim Capparelli
Contributors: 5
Amount: $300
Daniel Lipinski
Mark Pera
Contributors: 1,859
Amount: $118,066
the bennett campaign tells me that they have raised $100,000 in the first 30 days of his campaign. yet even if they continue this pace, they still don't get to $500,000 (which rich miller reminds us is the "price" of competitive *state* legislator races in illinois -- there are three state senate districts in il-03). there's a reason why we advise campaigns to start early. pera may have outraised lipinski in the last quarter, but lipinski ended it with more cash on hand. i'd call that a tie.
it's a little harder to compare organizations. the word seems to be that lipinski's organization is crumbling. demoralized, even. there are rumblings that lipinski senior has seized control of his son's "organization" in order to right the ship. i wonder if it matters. the lipinski name isn't what it used to be. madigan will be the machinehead who decides where the resources go. if the speaker wants to keep this seat, and he's willing to sacrifice some other races he's interested in, he will. but we won't know until the last two weeks. the afl-cio and afscme endorsements could be vital to mobilizing behind lipinski -- if they get into the middle of it.
there's very little question that the pera campaign has the best organization at this moment. they've been aggressive about raising money, and this has allowed them to go on the air and in the mail. they've been outrageously successful at gaining earned media. they have opened a second field office, and plan "an amazing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy and we're fortunate to have the support of the volunteers and constituent groups we need to move from planning to action in the upcoming weeks."
i wouldn't underestimate the bennett organization. they have put together a "kick-ass chicago team to run bennett's campaign." he needs it. palos hills is a small town in the district, and the 3,000 votes he's gotten there in the past isn't close to what is needed to be competitive. in 2006, there were more than 81,000 votes cast in this primary. no one would be surprised if it went over a hundred thousand in february. the real question is, where will the extra votes come from? if they come out of the city, and the 19th ward holds its voters for lipinski, the incumbent wins.
numerous calls and emails to the capparelli campaign were not returned for this report...
mark pera got the endorsement of NARAL/Pro-Choice America as well as the endorsement of forrest claypool, who won almost 70 percent of the vote in four il-03 townships during the 2006 primary. pera was also endorsed by reformers ald. manny flores, ald. brendan reilly, ald. scott waguespack, st. sen. dan kotowski, st. rep. john fritchey, and mwrd commissioner debra shore.
jerry bennett has announced the endorsements of 66 local mayors; the southwest sider blogger lists them all. the one that is missing is the one undoubtedly supporting lipinski.
jim capparelli has no new endorsements since the last post. capparelli's website has an audio component to it's front page, which may have been there before (i often mute sound on my computer).
the politico called lipinski one of the five most vulnerable in 2008 primary challenges:
Lipinski has never been able to win over a large majority of Democrats in his Chicago-based district since he was appointed as the nominee after his father’s abrupt resignation in 2004. His relatively conservative voting record within the Democratic caucus has prompted attorney Mark Pera to mount a well-funded and well-organized challenge.
meanwhile, the national journal has taken notice of kos' efforts to lick lil lip.
the local newspapers are giving the race attention. clout street, the chicago tribune blog covered the endorsements that pera and bennett picked up. archpundit also covered pera's endorsement by local reformers. ray hanania, of the southwest news-herald wrote this column on the race:
In the end, the Democratic Primary election comes down to an organization effort. And there, Lipinski has the edge.
In the primary battle two years ago against John Kelly and John Sullivan, Lipinski won by a landslide, with 56 percent of the city’s 46,000 votes and 53 percent of the suburb’s 36,000 votes.
Work the numbers. Lipinski was solid in several heavy voting wards in Chicago, trailing Kelly by 400 votes in the 19th Ward, where Irish voters vote for the Irish above all else.
Lipinski’s vote margin in the suburbs were strong across the suburban areas of the district. He did better, though, in the city, mainly because he won huge voter support in the district’s other key wards, the 23rd, 13th and 11th.
Can Lipinski lose? Maybe, if the powers that be who represent voters in the 3rd District turn their backs on him and on his father, who spent years helping all those communities and leaders.
read the whole thing, which reflects the current conventional wisdom about the race.
jerry bennett has been getting increasing coverage. the daily southtown covered bennett's presentation before a gage park high school class:
While not a household name, Bennett is the best-known of Lipinski's opponents. More than 20 area mayors recently endorsed his candidacy. As Palos Hills' part-time, $28,000-a-year mayor - a post he has held for 27 years - and as a regional leader on several planning boards, Bennett touts his governmental experience as the characteristic that sets him apart from his opponents.
ray hanania (as well as archpundit) covered bennett's s-chip announcement. the reporter online covered a rally, where bennett says lipinski “has not done the job” and is a “Republican in Democratic cloth.” a radio interview with bennett can he heard here.
mark pera probably scores the best in the last couple of weeks, since his netroots following has been active in keeping his story alive. one of them posted this story from chicago's fox news on youtube. local tribune papers covered pera's endorsements by citizen action/illinois, claypool and naral. the blogosphere has been on fire for pera this month, starting with an in these times article, to archpundit's coverage of pera youtube offerings, openleft's coverage of candidate statements to dailykos writeups here and here. pera is also getting coverage in the capitol hill outlets, the hill and roll call. it's no surprise, then, that aaron krager argues that pera is winning the media war.
the capitol fax blog had a lively discussion about the turmoil of the lipinski campaign, with rich miller, as usual, providing some common sense.
not so new, but at least new to his website, dan lipinski offers up an old brochure [PDF]. interestingly, i think lipinski's new slogan ("representation you have come to expect!") is probably more accurate than his old one ("leadership. commitment. experience.").
capparelli has a new, printable issues page. he has a welcome video up, as well.
the bennett campaign got back to me shortly after posting the first post, and i gave them the opportunity to answer those questions. their campaign headquarters is located at 7229 W. 103rd St, Palos Hills, IL, 60465. (Phone: 708-907-5063), which is open everyday. they feel like their grassroots support is strong:
we have more than 70 Mayors from all over the region backing Jerry's campaign. Mayors are at the absolute grassroots level, ensuring the quality of life in their towns and communities is addressed and providing those essential services from water to libraries to parks and rec. Mayor Bennett is also a life-long South Sider and his extensive network of family (he's one of 13 brothers and sisters), relatives, friends, colleagues and civic contacts are doing everything from making phone calls to hosting coffees to telling their own friends and neighbors to collecting small-dollar donations for the campaign. Our Southside Swarm is also gearing up for a strong field effort in these weeks leading up to the Feb 5th Election Day.
they report they have "lots of "at home" projects - calling, netroots networking, etc - for at web-savvy folks!" email alex [alex@jerrybennettforcongress.com] or call 708-907-5063, if you are interested.
pera put up a new cable ad, the youtube version is here. the campaign also sent out two direct mail pieces, available on the website. the "end this war" mailer is justified by a "fact sheet for this mailing." [PDF]. the campaign also released a third video message from the campaign to voters. that's using your web.
since the last post, the pera campaign has been joined by two new employees, deputy fund-raiser trevor montgomery, who is an iraq war veteran, and community outreach and field organizer, maura kelly. a video of montgomery is up on youtube here.
if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race. like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections. there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:
1. the candidates
2. money
3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can't change)
4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)
5. their organizations
probably the biggest deciding factor *right now* in this race is the political environment. while the incumbent has about a third of those polled who support his re-election, this is still a machine district. and it's not just any machine district, but the core of the chicago political machine. it will take more than half a million dollars to be competitive with the machine candidate in this district. there is such a strong undercurrent in the last two weeks that any campaign that hopes to be competitive will need to buttress itself and its voter base from the effect.
add to this the fact that the primary is february 5th. the machine is hoping that the weather is nasty -- typically, this is called precinct captain's weather, because some believe that only those who benefit directly from the chicago system will come out in such weather.
the bennett campaign seems to expect to import some of their own lil machines into the district for his benefit. many of the towns and villages who's mayors have endorsed bennett have non-partisan elections. that doesn't mean they don't have parties -- or machines -- just that they are not known by the democratic or republican label. we cannot know how committed these mayors are to bennett's election, but if they are, then machine or precinct captain's weather may not tilt the campaign one particular way. however, bennett can only benefit from importing lil machines if he's got his support id'ed by the time they come in (for the most part).
the final environmental factor that will strongly influence this race is the obama effect. barack obama drives turnout in illinois. his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2008 will have the same effect as his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2004 -- it will boost turnout significantly. and it will boost turnout beyond the normal surge turnout expected in a presidential year. turnout will be super-surged, and all those extra voters are not likely to go to the machine. of course, the good precinct captains know this, and they may have a plan to respond.
in many ways, as candidates the jury is still out for the non-incumbents. lipinski is, at best, a D candidate. that's a D for below average, not democrat. mark pera has shown promise, but i don't think he's shined (yet) like dan kotowski or deb shore did in 2006. his campaign says:
By any objective measure, Mark Pera is the viable challenger to Congressman Dan Lipinski. With less than 50 days to the election, Mark, myself and our campaign staff have been up and running full-time and over-time for nearly five months out of our offices here in Countryside. We have been up on cable TV since the end of October with two TV ads ("It's Time" and "Pain at the Pump"). We have four top-notch direct mail pieces out the door and in the hands of Democratic voters. The video messages that we have posted online at our Web site and on YouTube are watched by thousands of viewers. We've set the framework for this campaign and, perhaps most importantly, we are directing the new people and resources that have joined us to increase the pace of the campaign. For example, we recently opened a second field office in the city.
Mark has the talent and vision to provide real leadership for residents of the 3rd district. Since 2001, he has served as President of the Lyons Township High School Board of Education, which has an attendance area of 80,000 residents. The district is one of the top school districts in the state. As director of the Cook County State's Attorney's Office's Environment and Energy Division, he and his team was responsible for prosecuting major industrial polluters and well-known utility companies that were working against the public interest. It's these civic and law and order credentials that have helped him earn the trust and support of some of the leading reformers in Cook County and the state.
jerry bennett is still too new to the race. he's played an insider's game, to the extent he can, and hasn't really had the level of public appearances one expects from an a-level candidate. the bennett campaign tells us that the local mayoral network is significant in the southside and southwest side. they will leverage that as much as they can. bennett has been, by all accounts, an effective mayor who has organized his fellow mayors to gain influence in the state. but bennett's late entry is problematic. bennett's name recognition outside his town is limited. in pera's poll, capparelli had better name recognition than bennett. pera's name recognition was higher than either of them -- due to his earlier start.
jim capparelli has been almost invisible outside his base. so who knows?
the political climate favors the reformers. that's why there's so many looking to claim that label in the race. lil lip is vulnerable, and pera's campaign has specifically been designed to take advantage of that:
We're hearing from voters that they have decided to vote for Mark Pera on Feb. 5. The reason they most often cite is that our campaign is on the right side of the issues that the voters care about deeply, whether it's the Iraq war, energy and the environment, choice, personal privacy, stem cell research or health care. They think our current Congressman's leadership on these issues is inadequate, the don't like how Lipinski was put in office and voters want change. They know Mark can bring about that change.
the campaign that can seize the reformer label in this race seizes the advantage. that's why the pera campaign (and its allies) have worked so hard to grab the reformer label and present this race as one between pera and lipinski. this rankles the campaigns of the other two candidates, each of which brings their own advantages to the race.
actblue offers one way to tract money. at this date, actblue shows:
Jerry Bennett
Contributors: 22
Amount: $8,140
Jim Capparelli
Contributors: 5
Amount: $300
Daniel Lipinski
Mark Pera
Contributors: 1,859
Amount: $118,066
the bennett campaign tells me that they have raised $100,000 in the first 30 days of his campaign. yet even if they continue this pace, they still don't get to $500,000 (which rich miller reminds us is the "price" of competitive *state* legislator races in illinois -- there are three state senate districts in il-03). there's a reason why we advise campaigns to start early. pera may have outraised lipinski in the last quarter, but lipinski ended it with more cash on hand. i'd call that a tie.
it's a little harder to compare organizations. the word seems to be that lipinski's organization is crumbling. demoralized, even. there are rumblings that lipinski senior has seized control of his son's "organization" in order to right the ship. i wonder if it matters. the lipinski name isn't what it used to be. madigan will be the machinehead who decides where the resources go. if the speaker wants to keep this seat, and he's willing to sacrifice some other races he's interested in, he will. but we won't know until the last two weeks. the afl-cio and afscme endorsements could be vital to mobilizing behind lipinski -- if they get into the middle of it.
there's very little question that the pera campaign has the best organization at this moment. they've been aggressive about raising money, and this has allowed them to go on the air and in the mail. they've been outrageously successful at gaining earned media. they have opened a second field office, and plan "an amazing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy and we're fortunate to have the support of the volunteers and constituent groups we need to move from planning to action in the upcoming weeks."
i wouldn't underestimate the bennett organization. they have put together a "kick-ass chicago team to run bennett's campaign." he needs it. palos hills is a small town in the district, and the 3,000 votes he's gotten there in the past isn't close to what is needed to be competitive. in 2006, there were more than 81,000 votes cast in this primary. no one would be surprised if it went over a hundred thousand in february. the real question is, where will the extra votes come from? if they come out of the city, and the 19th ward holds its voters for lipinski, the incumbent wins.
numerous calls and emails to the capparelli campaign were not returned for this report...
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
It's a Snow Day...
it started snowing last night. what fascinates me the most about when it snows is just how quiet it gets. very few cars are out. kids stay in. there are no animals or insects making noise. the snow falls by itself. it doesn't seem like the city (or a suburb) at all.
that's not what i expect. but i like the quiet. seems almost like the country. or another country. with snow.
we had 3-4 inches outside our door, which seems like a lot for the south side...
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Withdrawals and Challenges
for me, this is one of the most interesting periods in the illinois election cycle because it is basically opaque, if not completely hidden from view. i always find it interesting when candidates who claim to hold progressive values challenge their opponents with the purpose of having them thrown off the ballot. if you can ever get proof that a candidate is politically expedient before electing them to office, this is it.
so far, eleven challenges have been resolved by withdrawal (for candidates who are not running for judges). in two cases, the objections were withdrawn:
MAYERS V DURBIN 11/8/2007 1:44 PM WITHDRAWN
DULLI V BOWLER 11/13/2007 12:54 PM WITHDRAWN
in the other nine cases, they were resolved when the challenged candidate withdrew from the race. two other candidates (who were not challenged), also withdrew.
Congressional Races:
WARDINGLEY, RAYMOND G.
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60643 3RD CONGRESS
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/13/2007 1:15 PM
Candidates Remaining: Arthur Jones, Michael Hawkins
FARNICK, JONATHAN
(Obj. Pending)
WOODSTOCK, IL 60098 8TH CONGRESS
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/19/2007 4:12 PM
Candidates Remaining: Melissa Bean *, Randi Scheurer
so-called progressive candidate randi scheurer objected to farnick's paperwork.
two senate candidates, both republicans, have withdrawn in their senate primary races, leaving lone candidates remaining in both those (primary) races:
DROBINSKI, ROD
WAUCONDA, IL 60084 26TH SENATE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/13/2007 1:06 PM
Candidates Remaining: Dan Duffy
BLUM, JOHN J.
(Obj. Pending)
FREEPORT, IL 61032 45TH SENATE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/19/2007 11:23 AM
Candidates Remaining: Tim Bivins
seven candidates in primaries for the illinois house have withdrawn, all but one under the cloud of objections filed by competitors:
CALDERON, RUBEN "CONTIGO"
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60647 3RD REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/27/2007 1:38 PM
Candidates Remaining: Luis Arroyo *, Wayne Strnad
SAWYER, KENNETH
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60615 5TH REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/26/2007 9:48 AM
Candidates Remaining: Ken Dunkin *
SHAW, ROBERT
SOUTH HOLLAND, IL 60473 29TH REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/6/2007 3:18 PM
Candidates Remaining: David Miller *
JOHNSON, BOBBY JOE
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60621 32ND REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/26/2007 9:06 AM
SEALS, JR., LAWRENCE A. "ANTON"
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60621 32ND REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/26/2007 9:06 AM
Candidates Remaining (open seate): Andre Thapedi, Syron Smith, Yvette Williams, Sean Smith
WISNIEWSKI, MICHAEL F.
(Obj. Pending)
NAPERVILLE, IL 60564 96TH REPRESENTATIVE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/13/2007 3:41 PM
Candidates Remaining: Darlene Senger, Michael Bowler
BALDWIN, TERRY
(Obj. Pending)
DANVILLE, IL 61832 104TH REPRESENTATIVE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/21/2007 1:45 PM
Candidates Remaining: Scott Eisenhauer
I have heard, but not confirmed, that at least one objection has been upheld by the state board of elections, throwing a primary challenger off the ballot.
so far, eleven challenges have been resolved by withdrawal (for candidates who are not running for judges). in two cases, the objections were withdrawn:
MAYERS V DURBIN 11/8/2007 1:44 PM WITHDRAWN
DULLI V BOWLER 11/13/2007 12:54 PM WITHDRAWN
in the other nine cases, they were resolved when the challenged candidate withdrew from the race. two other candidates (who were not challenged), also withdrew.
Congressional Races:
WARDINGLEY, RAYMOND G.
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60643 3RD CONGRESS
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/13/2007 1:15 PM
Candidates Remaining: Arthur Jones, Michael Hawkins
FARNICK, JONATHAN
(Obj. Pending)
WOODSTOCK, IL 60098 8TH CONGRESS
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/19/2007 4:12 PM
Candidates Remaining: Melissa Bean *, Randi Scheurer
so-called progressive candidate randi scheurer objected to farnick's paperwork.
two senate candidates, both republicans, have withdrawn in their senate primary races, leaving lone candidates remaining in both those (primary) races:
DROBINSKI, ROD
WAUCONDA, IL 60084 26TH SENATE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/13/2007 1:06 PM
Candidates Remaining: Dan Duffy
BLUM, JOHN J.
(Obj. Pending)
FREEPORT, IL 61032 45TH SENATE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/19/2007 11:23 AM
Candidates Remaining: Tim Bivins
seven candidates in primaries for the illinois house have withdrawn, all but one under the cloud of objections filed by competitors:
CALDERON, RUBEN "CONTIGO"
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60647 3RD REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/27/2007 1:38 PM
Candidates Remaining: Luis Arroyo *, Wayne Strnad
SAWYER, KENNETH
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60615 5TH REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/26/2007 9:48 AM
Candidates Remaining: Ken Dunkin *
SHAW, ROBERT
SOUTH HOLLAND, IL 60473 29TH REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/6/2007 3:18 PM
Candidates Remaining: David Miller *
JOHNSON, BOBBY JOE
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60621 32ND REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/26/2007 9:06 AM
SEALS, JR., LAWRENCE A. "ANTON"
(Obj. Pending)
CHICAGO, IL 60621 32ND REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRATIC Withdrawn
11/26/2007 9:06 AM
Candidates Remaining (open seate): Andre Thapedi, Syron Smith, Yvette Williams, Sean Smith
WISNIEWSKI, MICHAEL F.
(Obj. Pending)
NAPERVILLE, IL 60564 96TH REPRESENTATIVE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/13/2007 3:41 PM
Candidates Remaining: Darlene Senger, Michael Bowler
BALDWIN, TERRY
(Obj. Pending)
DANVILLE, IL 61832 104TH REPRESENTATIVE
REPUBLICAN Withdrawn
11/21/2007 1:45 PM
Candidates Remaining: Scott Eisenhauer
I have heard, but not confirmed, that at least one objection has been upheld by the state board of elections, throwing a primary challenger off the ballot.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
IL-14 Update
each race has a lens through which a political campaign can be viewed. in the il-03 race, the lens is the emergent scandal surrounding dan lipinski and whether any challenger can coalesce their social and political networks before the bombardment of advertising begins. in the il-14 race, that lens is the concurrent special election.
denny hastert's resignation announcement last night sets up a special election, who's primary most likely will be conducted concurrently with the primary for the november 2008 general election. in several ways, this sets back campaigns, because they basically have to start all over again. illinois' election laws are (from my perspective) quite arcane. by law, there was no vacancy until hastert’s resignation takes effect. "Dan White, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said he had yet to receive notice of Hastert's resignation." one assumes that this will come today. this begins the countdown. the governor has to call an election within 120 days of the vacancy for both the primary and the "general" (it's easier to call it a special election, and i will) elections. the governor has five days to set a date for these two elections; the primary is expected to coincide with the february 5 primary in illiois. apparently, as bill pascoe writes, "NO election (including a primary election) can take place fewer than 50 days after the creation of the vacancy."
cq notes, though:
to me, the really interesting thing about this illinois review article (right-wing blog) was the admission by "one former State Board of Elections counsel [who] said the fact is no one really knows yet how to handle a special election at the same time a primary is being conducted. They are two completely different elections, and demand two different sets of signature petitions. But the state code doesn't make the procedure clear." and there's the rub. no one really knows how to handle a special election at the same time as a regular (primary) election.
there is the thought that this special election -- the first for congress in 2008 -- will provide a few hints of voters’ overall direction for the upcoming national campaigns, perhaps a bellweather.
perhaps. but this is unknown territory, and one that requires both the candidates and their campaigns to work harder, raise more money, and push their supporters harder:
this isn't unheard of (there are examples where people are on the ballot for two different things, such as a party office and a government office), but the 14th congressional district doesn't really have a democratic party organization that one can rely on to get this across to voters.
the race for the open seat in il-14 is one of the most covered campaigns in illinois. there's an entire blog dedicated to it (although it came out of the 2006 campaign and has a decided laesch p.o.v.). hiram wurf continues to cover the race from a few miles away. aaron krager has put together a fine analysis of the race.
as i mentioned above, in a real sense, the campaigns must start over. they must pass petitions again, and mobilize volunteers to circulate petitions rather than persuade voters or identify supporters. the complexity of one's campaign organization is increased. the advantage goes to the candidate and/or campaign that can best handle this increasing complexity -- who can, in a phrase, do two or more things at once. and there's a clear benefit to those who have done this before.
many believe that this benefits john laesch, who was the 2006 democratic nominee. laesch does have the support of the netroots -- especially the netroots outside of illinois. he also has the benefit of having spent time in every corner of the district. if the electorate is not that familiar with john, the district's political activists are. he enjoys the support of many of them. he is apparently the first in the race to get a union or special interest group endorsement.
one thing that the laesch campaign has excelled at is getting earned media (they pretty much have to), and they are doing this again. they've been good about using youtube in the same way, including, for example, putting up video of press conferences that may not have been attended by the press. (you can also find debate footage at the friends of laesch youtube page.)
the consensus front runner in this race appears to be bill foster. for a first time candidate, foster entered the race remarkably prepared. in 2006, foster took off ten months to volunteer for patrick murphy's successful run for congress, and he hews closely to the positions that propelled murphy to election. but probably the biggest advantage that foster brings into this race -- and perhaps why he's perceived as the front runner -- is that he knows, and is prepared to do, what it takes to win a seat in congress. open seats for congress are more competitive and more driven by money. congressional quarterly's CQ Politics’ Top 10: Money Leaders in Open-Seat House Races names foster as one of the most aggressive candidates raising money for an open seat in congress -- along with two of the republicans running for the seat. david wasserman, an editor at the highly regarded cook political report, predicts that winning this seat will cost at least $2 million.
foster has convinced others that he's serious about winning this seat. his endorsement page not only includes early indicators like civic action, but illinois behemoths like dan hynes (state comptroller) and leading illinois progressives like alexi giannoulias (state treasurer and obama ally). and it's gotten him into the candidate's boot camp.
foster would like to make this race "a national referendum on the policies of George Bush," but some progressives want to make it a referendum on bill foster. i guess they identify foster as the front runner, too. much has been made of foster's willingness to caucus with the blue dog democrats, and his focus on fiscal responsibility. others simply object to the presence of a self-funder -- especially since their favored candidate isn't raising that much money. this hand-wringing about a serious candidate in a district with a pvi of +5 R forced chris bowers to admit, "it is important to note that Blue Dogs and Bush Dogs are not the same thing... To put it one way, a Patrick Muphy Blue Dog is the sort of Blue Dog to whom I can provide enthusiastic, activist support for Congress."
what some may not see is that foster is bringing new people into the democratic process and, presumably, into the democratic fold. that should be something that progressives support. "More than 80 percent of Foster's donors are first-time donors, and nearly three-quarters are scientists like Foster, a former Fermilab physicist." he's expanding the base in an area that is decidedly red, "The Foster campaign reported 680 contributors in the third quarter filing period," with a large number saying that they were first time contributors. and he's doing it based on issues that progressives support: "The first, second and third issue is Iraq," foster says.
you can see this focus in the second of foster's youtube videos, Bill Foster: We Must Change Course in Iraq. foster's youtube page also sports a biography video. foster's campaign also hosts a blog, has a facebook group and a flickr page. and, as i was writing this, foster's first television ad went up.
jotham stein was first in the race and has been making the rounds building support. he was the first candidate to hire staff, and has been dedicated to raising the money he needs to compete. his website is the only one to have a spanish version, which is interesting since approximately 20% of the district is hispanic. the numbers are far higher for democrats in the district.
early on in his run, stein used former candidate christine cegelis to guide him through the process of running for office. his background in the law and policy has given him the basis for the most extensive issues proposals of the democrats running. stein says,
along with the usual facebook page, stein adds a myspace and he's taken advantage of the democratic party's partybuilder tools.
joe serra entered the race last. he comes at the race from a different position. serra says, "I am running because I feel that the elected officials in Congress today are not getting the peoples business done. I am running to rebuild our greatest asset - our military." unique among the candidates, serra has applied for endorsement by democracy for america, which requires that you fill out their simple questionaire.
stein's field director noted that "hastert just threw a wrench into a lot of field programs out there." he observed that most people are still focused on the presidential campaigns, and they are undoubtedly not aware of the fact that they will face three different elections in the next 120 days. needless to say, few understand that the campaigns *again* have to collect 873 signatures to get their candidates on the (special election) ballot. how these four campaigns interact with the electorate over that time will be key to their success.
the foster campaign has been concentrating on their mailings and phone banking. they prepared to run in the special election all along, they tell me. the moment hastert stepped down, the campaign emailed its supporters and they got immediate replies, i am told. their focus now, as expected, would be to prepare for another round of passing petitions. their campaign office (1035 E State St, Suite J, Geneva) has been a hub of activity and potential volunteers are asked to email meredith@foster08.com to find out more.
the foster campaign is also speeding up the hiring of additional staff in preparation for the special election. both the foster and the stein campaigns had about two dozen people circulating petitions for them for the regular primary, as well as the candidates and members of their families. given the compressed nature of this next run (about three weeks to pass petitions), they will probably need double that.
the stein campaign has been doing coffees and door-to-door of late, working out of their campaign headquarters at 115 campbell in geneva. they understand that a "grassroots movement is needed," that this period is all about educating the public. they are re-focusing on getting jotham on the ballot for the special election, although no specific plans had been made yet. stein's field director admits that "people are going to be confused" by all this and they've made plans to make the process a little easier. that includes taking advantage of an already planned large event and getting people involved at that point. but they "can't comment on specific plans for a special election right now."
the volunteer who answered the phone at the laesch campaign conveyed the location of their campaign offices at 46 w downer place in aurora, but didn't feel comfortable answering more questions. she passed the message along, but i didn't get a call back from them.
efforts to reach joe serra were not effective.
denny hastert's resignation announcement last night sets up a special election, who's primary most likely will be conducted concurrently with the primary for the november 2008 general election. in several ways, this sets back campaigns, because they basically have to start all over again. illinois' election laws are (from my perspective) quite arcane. by law, there was no vacancy until hastert’s resignation takes effect. "Dan White, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said he had yet to receive notice of Hastert's resignation." one assumes that this will come today. this begins the countdown. the governor has to call an election within 120 days of the vacancy for both the primary and the "general" (it's easier to call it a special election, and i will) elections. the governor has five days to set a date for these two elections; the primary is expected to coincide with the february 5 primary in illiois. apparently, as bill pascoe writes, "NO election (including a primary election) can take place fewer than 50 days after the creation of the vacancy."
But Illinois law also sets periods for collecting signatures, for filing candidacies, and for challenging candidacies. It’s my understanding that when you add up these discrete periods, you end up with a time frame of 50-57 days as a minimum requirement before ANY election -– including a primary election -– could be held.
cq notes, though:
The state board of elections prefers that there be at least 72 days between the day the governor sets the special general election and when the special primary election is held, to allow for enough time to prepare. That 72-day window is not binding in state law, though, and the state elections board could oversee the election under a more compressed timetable if the governor so mandated.
The Illinois election code does require, though, that the candidacy filing period for a special congressional election occur 50 to 57 days before the special primary election.
to me, the really interesting thing about this illinois review article (right-wing blog) was the admission by "one former State Board of Elections counsel [who] said the fact is no one really knows yet how to handle a special election at the same time a primary is being conducted. They are two completely different elections, and demand two different sets of signature petitions. But the state code doesn't make the procedure clear." and there's the rub. no one really knows how to handle a special election at the same time as a regular (primary) election.
there is the thought that this special election -- the first for congress in 2008 -- will provide a few hints of voters’ overall direction for the upcoming national campaigns, perhaps a bellweather.
The Democrats, in their 2006 upsurge, captured several House seats in districts that traditionally have favored Republicans. The contest in the 14th District — where Hastert has long dominated House races and where President Bush took 55 percent of the vote in 2004 — may test whether the Democrats continue to have the momentum to put even more Republican seats into play, or whether the GOP position has stabilized to some degree.
perhaps. but this is unknown territory, and one that requires both the candidates and their campaigns to work harder, raise more money, and push their supporters harder:
The dual nature of the campaigning – for the special election and the regular primary – could become costly for candidates who will be forced to intensify their efforts since it is unlikely that a primary voter would vote for two separate candidates for the same office to cover different time spans.
this isn't unheard of (there are examples where people are on the ballot for two different things, such as a party office and a government office), but the 14th congressional district doesn't really have a democratic party organization that one can rely on to get this across to voters.
the race for the open seat in il-14 is one of the most covered campaigns in illinois. there's an entire blog dedicated to it (although it came out of the 2006 campaign and has a decided laesch p.o.v.). hiram wurf continues to cover the race from a few miles away. aaron krager has put together a fine analysis of the race.
as i mentioned above, in a real sense, the campaigns must start over. they must pass petitions again, and mobilize volunteers to circulate petitions rather than persuade voters or identify supporters. the complexity of one's campaign organization is increased. the advantage goes to the candidate and/or campaign that can best handle this increasing complexity -- who can, in a phrase, do two or more things at once. and there's a clear benefit to those who have done this before.
many believe that this benefits john laesch, who was the 2006 democratic nominee. laesch does have the support of the netroots -- especially the netroots outside of illinois. he also has the benefit of having spent time in every corner of the district. if the electorate is not that familiar with john, the district's political activists are. he enjoys the support of many of them. he is apparently the first in the race to get a union or special interest group endorsement.
one thing that the laesch campaign has excelled at is getting earned media (they pretty much have to), and they are doing this again. they've been good about using youtube in the same way, including, for example, putting up video of press conferences that may not have been attended by the press. (you can also find debate footage at the friends of laesch youtube page.)
the consensus front runner in this race appears to be bill foster. for a first time candidate, foster entered the race remarkably prepared. in 2006, foster took off ten months to volunteer for patrick murphy's successful run for congress, and he hews closely to the positions that propelled murphy to election. but probably the biggest advantage that foster brings into this race -- and perhaps why he's perceived as the front runner -- is that he knows, and is prepared to do, what it takes to win a seat in congress. open seats for congress are more competitive and more driven by money. congressional quarterly's CQ Politics’ Top 10: Money Leaders in Open-Seat House Races names foster as one of the most aggressive candidates raising money for an open seat in congress -- along with two of the republicans running for the seat. david wasserman, an editor at the highly regarded cook political report, predicts that winning this seat will cost at least $2 million.
foster has convinced others that he's serious about winning this seat. his endorsement page not only includes early indicators like civic action, but illinois behemoths like dan hynes (state comptroller) and leading illinois progressives like alexi giannoulias (state treasurer and obama ally). and it's gotten him into the candidate's boot camp.
foster would like to make this race "a national referendum on the policies of George Bush," but some progressives want to make it a referendum on bill foster. i guess they identify foster as the front runner, too. much has been made of foster's willingness to caucus with the blue dog democrats, and his focus on fiscal responsibility. others simply object to the presence of a self-funder -- especially since their favored candidate isn't raising that much money. this hand-wringing about a serious candidate in a district with a pvi of +5 R forced chris bowers to admit, "it is important to note that Blue Dogs and Bush Dogs are not the same thing... To put it one way, a Patrick Muphy Blue Dog is the sort of Blue Dog to whom I can provide enthusiastic, activist support for Congress."
what some may not see is that foster is bringing new people into the democratic process and, presumably, into the democratic fold. that should be something that progressives support. "More than 80 percent of Foster's donors are first-time donors, and nearly three-quarters are scientists like Foster, a former Fermilab physicist." he's expanding the base in an area that is decidedly red, "The Foster campaign reported 680 contributors in the third quarter filing period," with a large number saying that they were first time contributors. and he's doing it based on issues that progressives support: "The first, second and third issue is Iraq," foster says.
you can see this focus in the second of foster's youtube videos, Bill Foster: We Must Change Course in Iraq. foster's youtube page also sports a biography video. foster's campaign also hosts a blog, has a facebook group and a flickr page. and, as i was writing this, foster's first television ad went up.
jotham stein was first in the race and has been making the rounds building support. he was the first candidate to hire staff, and has been dedicated to raising the money he needs to compete. his website is the only one to have a spanish version, which is interesting since approximately 20% of the district is hispanic. the numbers are far higher for democrats in the district.
early on in his run, stein used former candidate christine cegelis to guide him through the process of running for office. his background in the law and policy has given him the basis for the most extensive issues proposals of the democrats running. stein says,
I know I can do much better. In this campaign, I will offer real solutions to many of the real problems facing our country. From defeating global warming, to having a strong national defense, to more jobs for our district, to guaranteeing food and health care to our kids, I am taking a stand.
along with the usual facebook page, stein adds a myspace and he's taken advantage of the democratic party's partybuilder tools.
joe serra entered the race last. he comes at the race from a different position. serra says, "I am running because I feel that the elected officials in Congress today are not getting the peoples business done. I am running to rebuild our greatest asset - our military." unique among the candidates, serra has applied for endorsement by democracy for america, which requires that you fill out their simple questionaire.
stein's field director noted that "hastert just threw a wrench into a lot of field programs out there." he observed that most people are still focused on the presidential campaigns, and they are undoubtedly not aware of the fact that they will face three different elections in the next 120 days. needless to say, few understand that the campaigns *again* have to collect 873 signatures to get their candidates on the (special election) ballot. how these four campaigns interact with the electorate over that time will be key to their success.
the foster campaign has been concentrating on their mailings and phone banking. they prepared to run in the special election all along, they tell me. the moment hastert stepped down, the campaign emailed its supporters and they got immediate replies, i am told. their focus now, as expected, would be to prepare for another round of passing petitions. their campaign office (1035 E State St, Suite J, Geneva) has been a hub of activity and potential volunteers are asked to email meredith@foster08.com to find out more.
the foster campaign is also speeding up the hiring of additional staff in preparation for the special election. both the foster and the stein campaigns had about two dozen people circulating petitions for them for the regular primary, as well as the candidates and members of their families. given the compressed nature of this next run (about three weeks to pass petitions), they will probably need double that.
the stein campaign has been doing coffees and door-to-door of late, working out of their campaign headquarters at 115 campbell in geneva. they understand that a "grassroots movement is needed," that this period is all about educating the public. they are re-focusing on getting jotham on the ballot for the special election, although no specific plans had been made yet. stein's field director admits that "people are going to be confused" by all this and they've made plans to make the process a little easier. that includes taking advantage of an already planned large event and getting people involved at that point. but they "can't comment on specific plans for a special election right now."
the volunteer who answered the phone at the laesch campaign conveyed the location of their campaign offices at 46 w downer place in aurora, but didn't feel comfortable answering more questions. she passed the message along, but i didn't get a call back from them.
efforts to reach joe serra were not effective.
Monday, November 26, 2007
IL-03 Roundup
if media was all that mattered, the race against rep. lipinski would be lopsided. lipinski has generated a lot of negative publicity in his run-up to re-election, and you'd expect someone to take advantage of it. the incumbent faces a mini-scandal, one that doesn't particularly help his image as he tries to separate himself from his father (who handed him the seat in 2004). kristen mcqueary lays out the reasons for the lipinski scandal, and rich miller, of the capitol fax blog, summarizes:
mark pera has emerged as the early netroots favorite. he's demonstrated that he's serious about this race, lining up pat botterman as his campaign manager and julie sweet as his deputy. pera has gotten the dfa endorsement and convinced the local dfa groups (all outside the 3rd) to send in the troops. pera just announced the endorsement of citizen action, which has been a bellweather endorsement in past races.
pera has two videos up on his youtube page, "Mark Pera on the issues" and his first television ad, "It's Time". it's no surprise that pera is generating support from the netroots, given his efforts to appeal to them in the language we understand.
but pera is also following the traditional campaign plan, having commissioned a benchmark poll by penn, schoen and berland [PDF]. archpundit breaks it down:
our own maven notes that mark pera won the ballot lottery.
also jumping into the race has been former prosecutor and army reserves lt. colonel jim capparelli. capparelli's main justification for entering this race appears to be that pera and the baby lipinski both live in western springs (does lipinski *really* live in illinois???). but unlike the pera campaign (to this point), the capparelli presence has just been catching up. he talks on his website talks about campaigning at the metra stations, and there seems to be a sparse nature (so far) to the website. as yet, no one seems to have seen him (although you'd expect that to change).
capparelli also generated some publicity, has a youtube page, where you can find this introductory video. his website now hosts a blog, although it appears to be only for the purpose of answering questions (or taking testimonials) rather than actively engaging the netroots or incorporating them into his campaign.
one capparelli supporter says, in the capital fax blog, that "the unions are playing a huge role in city elections and Capparelli has been lining up their support." that certainly remains to be seen, although the citizen action endorsement for pera (who's board and members who vote on endorsements is full of union representatives) may forebode otherwise. it's been reported that capparelli has the endorsements of local 399 of the operating engineers and teamsters local 786. that comment may be indicative of the strategy and expectations around the capparelli campaign and it will be interesting to see whether union support favors one candidate or is dispersed across the field.
one of the big disputes in this campaign is the presence of machine plants, or shills, expected to divide the anti-incumbent vote (for the incumbent's benefit). jim capparelli has taken great exception to being called a shill for the machine [PDF] even though it is said that "Many of his positions — on the war and abortion, for example — appear to mirror Lipinski’s." palos hills mayor jerry bennett also faces the accusation that he is the machine plant. kos has examined bennett's past and identified this continuing connection between bennett and lipinski:
and yet, appearances can be deceiving. unlike john kelly, who was regarded as the shill in lipinski's first democratic primary in 2006, bennett has come to play. he's put together a well-regarded campaign team, with alex behrend, mia phifer, vasyl markus and lake research partners (celinda lake's polling firm). bennett garnered the endorsement of the other challenger in 2006, john sullivan.
bennett's reason for running can be found here:
the real problem is that lipinski seems to have alienated every single democratic constituency there is. given that democrats don't always agree on their priorities, it should be no surprise that there are different people running against a vulnerable democrat for seemingly different reasons. if only he wasn't mired in scandal and the machine wasn't under serious strain, he might have a better chance of weathering the storm. the presence of three serious challengers (at this point, i'm taking their word for it) certainly increases lipinski's chances at re-election.
what will be interesting to see is whether voters coalesce around one single candidate. if this is going to happen, it will begin before the television commercials get aired or perhaps even the billboards and lawn signs go up. voter contact is the only reliable means for generating such a consensus. as such, it's interesting to look at the ground activity of these campaigns.
the capparelli campaign reports that they've been making a big push going door-to-door for at least the last three weeks "with a big mailing." they've been hitting different wards in the city and get started at 8am every saturday morning. while they have a campaign headquarters (5602 1/2 w 63rd st), they appear to meet at different locations each saturday (so call the office if you want to help out). jim capparelli has also been making the veteran's circuit, speaking at a veteran's day rally as well as at local vfw halls in the district. their campaign calendar shows a couple of fundraisers scheduled over the next few weeks.
the pera campaign has been out in the field a little while longer. the campaign reports that mark pera has been going to train stations every (weekday) morning and walking with volunteers in the afternoons. they have also been conducting weekend canvassing with both the northside and oak park dfa groups. they report that they have a major outreach push on for december 1st and 2nd, as well as an id canvass on the 8th. the campaign reports fund-raisers planned for the 10th and 13th. most of their volunteer activities start out of their campaign office, at 7061 s. willow springs rd in countryside, although northside dfa car pools in from the city. i can't seem to find a calendar on the website, but i might have missed something.
the bennett campaign also has a campaign headquarters set up at 7229 w 103rd st in palos hills. the volunteer who answered the phone (they were in the midst of "a big conference call") didn't feel capable of answering any other questions about the campaign.
the lipinski campaign clearly relies on the machine for his re-election. the problem with this strategy this february is that the on-going battle between the governor and the speaker may divert forces from helping lipinski. there isn't a lot of crossover wards where the speaker will be defending incumbent state house members and il-03. and one just doesn't get the impression that lipinski's seat is that important -- at least, not more important than the speaker's forces in the general assembly. it matters how these four campaigns divide the map, where they concentrate on -- and where they have pre-existing support.
all four democrats can be contributed to online through actblue.
Bill Lipinski games the system to get his kid elected to Congress. The son keeps his dad’s cronies on the payroll, and two of them (includng one who remains on the payroll) are getting payments from his father’s childrens’ charity fund, which doesn’t appear to be doing a lot of charitable work except for Dan Lipinski’s benefit. Dan shares an office with his daddy’s lobbying firm and even pays that firm for advice, but he insists he never talked with daddy about a project that the elder Lipinski is working on.
mark pera has emerged as the early netroots favorite. he's demonstrated that he's serious about this race, lining up pat botterman as his campaign manager and julie sweet as his deputy. pera has gotten the dfa endorsement and convinced the local dfa groups (all outside the 3rd) to send in the troops. pera just announced the endorsement of citizen action, which has been a bellweather endorsement in past races.
pera has two videos up on his youtube page, "Mark Pera on the issues" and his first television ad, "It's Time". it's no surprise that pera is generating support from the netroots, given his efforts to appeal to them in the language we understand.
but pera is also following the traditional campaign plan, having commissioned a benchmark poll by penn, schoen and berland [PDF]. archpundit breaks it down:
401 Likely Democratic Primary voters +/- 5%
Lipinski Re-elect 35 percent
Wrong Track: 81 percent
Generic Congressional Approval: 37 percent
our own maven notes that mark pera won the ballot lottery.
also jumping into the race has been former prosecutor and army reserves lt. colonel jim capparelli. capparelli's main justification for entering this race appears to be that pera and the baby lipinski both live in western springs (does lipinski *really* live in illinois???). but unlike the pera campaign (to this point), the capparelli presence has just been catching up. he talks on his website talks about campaigning at the metra stations, and there seems to be a sparse nature (so far) to the website. as yet, no one seems to have seen him (although you'd expect that to change).
capparelli also generated some publicity, has a youtube page, where you can find this introductory video. his website now hosts a blog, although it appears to be only for the purpose of answering questions (or taking testimonials) rather than actively engaging the netroots or incorporating them into his campaign.
one capparelli supporter says, in the capital fax blog, that "the unions are playing a huge role in city elections and Capparelli has been lining up their support." that certainly remains to be seen, although the citizen action endorsement for pera (who's board and members who vote on endorsements is full of union representatives) may forebode otherwise. it's been reported that capparelli has the endorsements of local 399 of the operating engineers and teamsters local 786. that comment may be indicative of the strategy and expectations around the capparelli campaign and it will be interesting to see whether union support favors one candidate or is dispersed across the field.
one of the big disputes in this campaign is the presence of machine plants, or shills, expected to divide the anti-incumbent vote (for the incumbent's benefit). jim capparelli has taken great exception to being called a shill for the machine [PDF] even though it is said that "Many of his positions — on the war and abortion, for example — appear to mirror Lipinski’s." palos hills mayor jerry bennett also faces the accusation that he is the machine plant. kos has examined bennett's past and identified this continuing connection between bennett and lipinski:
Palos Hills mayor Jerry Bennet -- a Lipinski ally -- is supposedly running a legit race. Yet he endorsed Lipinski two years ago -- an endorsement that has been reposted on Lipinski's new and updated campaign site:
Gerald Bennett, the Mayor of Palos Hills and a health care executive, said Congressman Lipinski's proposals were an "excellent approach to helping American families become better health care consumers."
"The Congressman should be lauded for working with colleagues in both parties to craft initiatives that will not only improve health care availability and delivery, but also have a great chance of being enacted," Mayor Bennett said.
and yet, appearances can be deceiving. unlike john kelly, who was regarded as the shill in lipinski's first democratic primary in 2006, bennett has come to play. he's put together a well-regarded campaign team, with alex behrend, mia phifer, vasyl markus and lake research partners (celinda lake's polling firm). bennett garnered the endorsement of the other challenger in 2006, john sullivan.
bennett's reason for running can be found here:
A life-long Democrat and South Sider, Jerry Bennett is the only person running in Illinois 3rd Congressional District with the background and broad-based appeal in both the City of Chicago and the Cook County suburbs to win the February 5th Democratic Primary. Voters previously supportive of Dan Lipinski are fed up with the Congressman's support of George W. Bush and Jerry Bennett offers both realistic Democratic change voters seek and experience required.
the real problem is that lipinski seems to have alienated every single democratic constituency there is. given that democrats don't always agree on their priorities, it should be no surprise that there are different people running against a vulnerable democrat for seemingly different reasons. if only he wasn't mired in scandal and the machine wasn't under serious strain, he might have a better chance of weathering the storm. the presence of three serious challengers (at this point, i'm taking their word for it) certainly increases lipinski's chances at re-election.
what will be interesting to see is whether voters coalesce around one single candidate. if this is going to happen, it will begin before the television commercials get aired or perhaps even the billboards and lawn signs go up. voter contact is the only reliable means for generating such a consensus. as such, it's interesting to look at the ground activity of these campaigns.
the capparelli campaign reports that they've been making a big push going door-to-door for at least the last three weeks "with a big mailing." they've been hitting different wards in the city and get started at 8am every saturday morning. while they have a campaign headquarters (5602 1/2 w 63rd st), they appear to meet at different locations each saturday (so call the office if you want to help out). jim capparelli has also been making the veteran's circuit, speaking at a veteran's day rally as well as at local vfw halls in the district. their campaign calendar shows a couple of fundraisers scheduled over the next few weeks.
the pera campaign has been out in the field a little while longer. the campaign reports that mark pera has been going to train stations every (weekday) morning and walking with volunteers in the afternoons. they have also been conducting weekend canvassing with both the northside and oak park dfa groups. they report that they have a major outreach push on for december 1st and 2nd, as well as an id canvass on the 8th. the campaign reports fund-raisers planned for the 10th and 13th. most of their volunteer activities start out of their campaign office, at 7061 s. willow springs rd in countryside, although northside dfa car pools in from the city. i can't seem to find a calendar on the website, but i might have missed something.
the bennett campaign also has a campaign headquarters set up at 7229 w 103rd st in palos hills. the volunteer who answered the phone (they were in the midst of "a big conference call") didn't feel capable of answering any other questions about the campaign.
the lipinski campaign clearly relies on the machine for his re-election. the problem with this strategy this february is that the on-going battle between the governor and the speaker may divert forces from helping lipinski. there isn't a lot of crossover wards where the speaker will be defending incumbent state house members and il-03. and one just doesn't get the impression that lipinski's seat is that important -- at least, not more important than the speaker's forces in the general assembly. it matters how these four campaigns divide the map, where they concentrate on -- and where they have pre-existing support.
all four democrats can be contributed to online through actblue.
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