Lots of Challenges, Lots of Games

rich miller, in his capital fax, has been talking about prospective battle between michael madigan, the speak of the house, and rod blagojevich, the governor, in the upcoming democratic primaries on february 5th. now that the filing deadline has passed, we get a better idea of whether -- and where -- this battle will be fought.

it does seem like there are more contested primaries against sitting democrats in the illinois house this time. 20 democratic incumbents have drawn challengers, some of them rather credible challengers. 60% (no. = 12) of these seats are based in chicago, close to the center of both madigan and blagojevich. this is significant because even though chicago provides the largest plurality of the democratic majority in the illinois house, the speaker has been extremely protective of his democratic incumbents downstate.

in contrast, only two republican incumbents face a primary. looking at these republicans, though, offers an interesting contrast between the way that madigan runs his side and cross runs his. all of madigan's incumbents had their paperwork ready to be filed on "opening day" and were in line to be counted as 8am on october 29. this puts them into the lottery to be first on the ballot. but one of the two contested republicans (shane cultra) had to withdraw his initial paperwork and resubmit his petitions in order to get on the ballot. this may be because rep. cultra was unaware that he would be challenged -- which is more likely in the bigger rural house districts.

the battle between the governor's allies and the speaker's allies is not the only influence in what has driven these contested races. other factors are at play, as well, some local and some personality driven. and a lot of these races are rematches from 2006. but the governor-speaker divide is the most dominant one, and the one that will undoubtedly come into play in the races that end up being truly competitive. these contested races will winnow themselves down -- one rematch, robert shaw vs. david miller in the south suburbs, has already seen the non-incumbent (shaw) drop out. challenges will be made, in fewer cases, opponents will withdraw, and the invisible primary (the money race) will be the biggest challenge.

some of these incumbents appear, on paper at least, vulnerable. many have not kept up with their fund raising. rep. elga jefferies reported only $193.26 cash on hand in her last semi-annual report. her former opponent, paul chadha had more COH that she did: $4,710.50. esther golar only had $3,429.69 COH, certainly not enough to ward off potential challengers (she drew two).

DEMOCRATS:
1.) ILGA-02 (Democratic; Chicago):
Edward J. Acevedo * 10/29/2007 $13,766.01
Daniel I. Fitzgerald 10/29/2007 none
Francisco Rodriguez 11/5/2007 $40.00

2.) ILGA-03 (Democratic; Chicago):
Luis Arroyo * 10/29/2007 $26,910.66
Wayne A. Strnad 10/29/2007 $328.30
Ruben Calderon 11/5/2007 none

3.) ILGA-05 (Democratic; Chicago):
Kenneth "Ken" Dunkin * 10/29/2007 $78,367.49
Kenneth Sawyer 11/5/2007 none

4.) ILGA-06 (Democratic; Chicago):
Esther Golar * 10/29/2007 $3,429.69
Jerry Washington 11/5/2007 none
Darryl Smith 11/5/2007 none

5.) ILGA-09 (Democratic; Chicago):
Arthur L. Turner * 10/29/2007 $20,238.57
Dorothy L. Walton 10/29/2007 none

6.) ILGA-10 (Democratic; Chicago):
Annazette R. Collins * 10/29/2007 $33,962.16
Chenika Collins 11/5/2007 none
Eddie Winters 11/5/2007 none

7.) ILGA-25 (Democratic; Chicago):
Barbara Flynn Currie * 10/29/2007 $212,125.72
Sharon Latiker 11/2/2007 none

8.) ILGA-26 (Democratic; Chicago):
William D. Burns 10/29/2007 none
Paul Chadha 10/29/2007 $4,710.50
Phillip Jackson 10/29/2007 none
Elga L. Jefferies * 10/29/2007 $193.26
Ranoule Tatum 11/2/2007 $19.83
Julian C. Williams 11/5/2007 none
Kenny Johnson 11/5/2007 none

9.) ILGA-27 (Democratic; Chicago):
Monique D. Davis * 10/29/2007 $29,529.73
Stanley S. Moore 10/29/2007 none
James L. McCorkle 11/5/2007 none

10.) ILGA-28 (Democratic; Chicago):
Robert "Bob" Rita * 10/29/2007 $9,405.51
Michael E. Mayden 10/31/2007 none
Earick D. Rayburn 11/5/2007
Marquez D. Elem 11/5/2007 none
Pamela Caston 11/5/2007 none
James J. Taylor 11/5/2007 none

11.) ILGA-29 (Democratic; South Suburbs):
David E. Miller * 10/29/2007 $62,711.34
Robert Shaw 11/5/2007 WITHDRAWN $6,700.00

12.) ILGA-30 (Democratic; South Suburbs):
William "Will" Davis * 10/29/2007 $48,969.74
Maureen Forte 11/5/2007 none
Mark S. Headley 11/5/2007 none

13.) ILGA-33 (Democratic; Chicago):
Marlow H. Colvin * 10/29/2007 $39,845.57
Derrick Prince 11/5/2007 none

14.) ILGA-38 (Democratic; South Suburbs):
Al Riley * 10/29/2007 none
Toni T. Ashmore 11/2/2007 none

15.) ILGA-56 (Democratic; Western Suburbs):
Paul Froehlich * 10/29/2007 $24,783.17
John W. Moynihan 10/29/2007 none
Anita Forte-Scott 10/29/2007 none
Charlotte Kegarise 11/5/2007 none

16.) ILGA-60 (Democratic; Waukegan):
Tony Elam 10/29/2007 none
Angelo D. Kyle 10/29/2007 $1,749.68
Eddie Washington * 10/29/2007 $56,373.71

17.) ILGA-71 (Democratic; Quad Cities):
Mike Boland * 10/29/2007 $66,064.11
Jerry Lack 10/29/2007 none

18.) ILGA-78 (Democratic; Chicago):
Deborah L. Graham * 10/29/2007 $13,767.63
Phyllis M. Logan 10/29/2007 none

19.) ILGA-79 (Democratic; Downstate):
Lisa M. Dugan * 10/29/2007 $37,412.40
Jarman Myron Porter 11/5/2007 none

20.) ILGA-91 (Democratic; Downstate):
Michael K. Smith * 10/29/2007 $18,827.90
Marvin Bainter 11/2/2007 none


1.) ILGA-32 (Democratic Primary - Open Seat; Chicago):
Lawrence A. "Anton" Seals, Jr. 10/29/2007 none
Andre Thapedi 10/29/2007 none
Bobby Joe Johnson 11/2/2007 none
Syron M. Smith 11/2/2007 none
Yvette Williams 11/2/2007 none
Sean J. Smith 11/5/2007 none

2.) ILGA-92 (Democratic Primary - Open Seat; Downstate):
G. Allen Mayer 10/29/2007 none
Jehan Gordon 11/2/2007 none

3.) ILGA-107 (Democratic Primary - Open Seat; Downstate):
Patti J. Hahn 10/29/2007 none
Travis G. Loyd 10/29/2007 none


REPUBLICANS:
1.) ILGA-49 (Republican; Western Suburbs):
James (Jim) Krenz 10/29/2007
Timothy L. Schmitz * 10/29/2007

2.) ILGA-105 (Republican; Downstate):
David W. Tomlinson 10/29/2007
Shane Cultra * 11/5/2007


1.) ILGA-48 (Republican Primary - Open Seat; Western Suburbs):
Dave Carlin 10/29/2007
Michael G. Connelly 10/29/2007
Douglas P. Krause 10/29/2007

2.) ILGA-50 (Republican Primary - Open Seat; Western Suburbs):
Anton L. Graff 10/29/2007
Kay Hatcher 10/29/2007
David Richmond 10/29/2007
Terry Hunt 11/5/2007

3.) ILGA-66 (Republican Primary - Open Seat; Western Suburbs):
Laura Bartell 10/29/2007
Christine K. Prochno 10/29/2007

4.) ILGA-96 (Republican Primary - Open Seat; Western Suburbs):
Darlene J. Senger 10/29/2007
Michael G. Bowler 11/5/2007
Michael F. Wisniewski 11/5/2007

5.) ILGA-104 (Republican Primary - Open Seat; Downstate):
Terry Baldwin 10/31/2007
Scott Eisenhauer 11/5/2007

* incumbent
websites come from candidates at the board of elections.
COH figures from from illinois board of elections.